INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
ABCD // Gartley // Bat // Cypher
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CosmicDust
2 years ago
Hi Jazz, do you know how effective these patterns are? Statistics? Thx.
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Trading_Jazz PRO CosmicDust
2 years ago
80% accuracy
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CosmicDust Trading_Jazz
2 years ago
That's impressive. Never lose money again? :-)
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Trading_Jazz PRO CosmicDust
2 years ago
eheh, 30% of the time the market is on trend, the other's 70% the market is on consolidation, so, this patterns tend to appear on consolidation moments, the issue, is to identify those "ratios" with precision, and IF we use a strategy that allow us to enter the market with a risk reward like 1:5, or even 1:1, you will have your profit overtime. Actually the accuracy may vary depending on the pattern, for example, Cypher patterns have between 70% and 80% accuracy, and those are the best to trade, general opinion ;), others have 30% accuracy, but they still tradable with low risk positions.
I do NOT believe trading 5 situations like those Cyphers, and loose them all, i can loose 4, and only 1 profitable position can actually cover the losses and even take profit after those 5 at the end.
So, try to research a bit on previous charts that show's you similar situations ;) you will not regret.
In fact, together with price action, support and resistance levels, we have all the tools. It works in all timeframes
Have safe trades.
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CosmicDust Trading_Jazz
2 years ago
Thanks Jazz!
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Trading_Jazz PRO CosmicDust
2 years ago
But, CosmicDust, you are one of the TradingViews Gurus, you should know about it more than me ;)
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CosmicDust Trading_Jazz
2 years ago
Guru? Good luck to myself : -). Thanks for posting these patterns - I saw many folks using them but I never use them myself (so far).
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Trading_Jazz PRO CosmicDust
2 years ago
look this example ;)  
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GcNaif MOD
2 years ago
Good one Jazz bro
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Trading_Jazz PRO GcNaif
2 years ago
;) waiting for your validation on those! ;)
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dionvuletich
2 years ago
Nice
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IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Good tutorial, but 80%? You'd be rich in a very short time if that was the case. Maybe 55-60% on bats?
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Trading_Jazz PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes, but there's traders that say around 80% on cyphers, but that can deppend on racios used and i dont know wich they are using. I stay with those 50 and 60%. :-)
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IvanLabrie Trading_Jazz
2 years ago
50% is a coin flip.
The thing is to understand the price action, and not blindly look for random ratios like many people do.
If you can make money over time, it's good in my book.
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dionvuletich IvanLabrie
2 years ago
No 50% is not a coin flip... if you win 50% of the time but make 2:1 R:R you are getting the same dollars as someone who wins 75% at 1:1, the only difference is that higher win% = smoother equity curve and less likely to have strings of losses > 4-5 in a row. It does not make it more profitable so 50% winners is not a coin flip unless it is at 1:1 R:R

Bats are 60-62% winners in FX from my back testing on nearly every time frame I tested (from 15min to daily) and most pairs but the average R:R was 2.4:1 using scaled targets to a max of the 123% of X-A leg and trailing stop to BE after hitting T1, this gave an expectancy of 1.11 and is by far my favourite pattern

Cyphers do win ~75-80% with the original rules but the R:R can be negative for the first target and slightly positive for the second giving an average R;R of likely 1:1 +/- 0.1 so expectancy would likely be 0.5-0.6, although I actually trade them with a tighter stop loss directly below X and this drops the win% down to around 55-56% but increases the average R;R to 1.46 per trade giving an expectancy of 0.37... I might test the original wider stops and see if they make a difference but I trade them as I tested them similar to bats
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IvanLabrie dionvuletich
2 years ago
I'm aware of that.
"If you can make money over time, it's good in my book."
That implies the risk:reward makes it profitable.

Always interesting to learn about more objective ways of analyzing the market, stats are nice. I still think the ratios alone won't make the pattern work. I doubt every trader, or a machine will produce an 80% hit ratio with mechanical cypher trades.
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dionvuletich IvanLabrie
2 years ago
your probablt right... in my experience it is difficult to take every single trade present as some of them happen quickly and the win% is often less than the tested original, but yes I agree if it works and makes money then you are doing it right!
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dionvuletich IvanLabrie
2 years ago
BTW I wasn't criticizing your comment only stating my experience and testing which was over 13years of data (from 2001) on every time frame I tested
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Pittaya.T
2 years ago
Thanks Jazz
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ender.genom
9 months ago
snapshot

That how I see without pro)))
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Trading_Jazz PRO ender.genom
9 months ago
snapshot

i'm not a pro
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feiwuba Trading_Jazz
6 months ago
HI ,MY DEAR FRIEND .COULD YOU SEND IT TO ME BY TEXT?
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