November 12th 2021: DXY Refreshing 2021 Tops Weighs on Peers
EUR/USD:
(Italics: previous analysis)
Weekly timeframe:
Down 1.0 percent on the week, prime support at $1.1473-1.1583 had its lower wall clipped. As a result, further selling may materialise, targeting a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1281 as well as a 1.618% Fibonacci projection from $1.1237.
On top of this, price taking out 2nd November low (2020) at $1.1603 suggests the currency pair is transitioning to a downtrend.
Daily timeframe:
In what was a relatively subdued session Thursday.
Europe’s shared currency eked out modest losses against its US counterpart and refreshed year-to-date lows. Fibonacci support derived from $1.1420-1.1460 (comprises a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a 1.272% Fibonacci projection) made an entrance.
Upstream features trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.2254, shadowed by Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.1689.
Immediate flow has been trending lower since late May tops at $1.2266. Also confirming downside is the relative strength index (RSI) accepting the 50.00 centreline as indicator resistance since late October. What this tells traders is that momentum is lower (average losses exceeding average gains) and might continue until shaking hands with oversold territory.
H4 timeframe:
Following Wednesday’s bold losses, bearish forces pulled Thursday to within a stone’s throw of Quasimodo support at $1.1438—joined by a 1.618% Fibonacci expansion at $1.1441, a 1.618% Fibonacci projection coming in from $1.1444 and a 100% Fibonacci projection from $1.1431.
Coupled with the daily timeframe’s Fibonacci support at $1.1420-1.1460, H4 support between $1.1431 and $1.1444 could have buyers attempt to establish a floor. Willing bids are likely to zero in on resistance at $1.1495.
Continuation moves below H4 support, on the other hand, tips the weight in favour of daily price engulfing its Fibonacci support.
H1 timeframe:
Out of the relative strength index (RSI), the indicator reveals early bullish divergence (positive momentum: average gains beginning to exceed average losses), despite price action forging fresh troughs in recent hours.
Technical space, nonetheless, shows that sub $1.1467 resistance we have scope to take aim at $1.14.
Observed Technical Levels:
The combination of daily Fibonacci support from $1.1420-1.1460, H4 support between $1.1431 and $1.1444 and the H1 timeframe’s RSI chalking up bullish divergence, echoes a potential short-term recovery. However, recognising the downtrend in this market, any upside attempt may be capped by H1 resistance at $1.1467.
EUR/USD:
(Italics: previous analysis)
Weekly timeframe:
Down 1.0 percent on the week, prime support at $1.1473-1.1583 had its lower wall clipped. As a result, further selling may materialise, targeting a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1281 as well as a 1.618% Fibonacci projection from $1.1237.
On top of this, price taking out 2nd November low (2020) at $1.1603 suggests the currency pair is transitioning to a downtrend.
Daily timeframe:
In what was a relatively subdued session Thursday.
Europe’s shared currency eked out modest losses against its US counterpart and refreshed year-to-date lows. Fibonacci support derived from $1.1420-1.1460 (comprises a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a 1.272% Fibonacci projection) made an entrance.
Upstream features trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.2254, shadowed by Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.1689.
Immediate flow has been trending lower since late May tops at $1.2266. Also confirming downside is the relative strength index (RSI) accepting the 50.00 centreline as indicator resistance since late October. What this tells traders is that momentum is lower (average losses exceeding average gains) and might continue until shaking hands with oversold territory.
H4 timeframe:
Following Wednesday’s bold losses, bearish forces pulled Thursday to within a stone’s throw of Quasimodo support at $1.1438—joined by a 1.618% Fibonacci expansion at $1.1441, a 1.618% Fibonacci projection coming in from $1.1444 and a 100% Fibonacci projection from $1.1431.
Coupled with the daily timeframe’s Fibonacci support at $1.1420-1.1460, H4 support between $1.1431 and $1.1444 could have buyers attempt to establish a floor. Willing bids are likely to zero in on resistance at $1.1495.
Continuation moves below H4 support, on the other hand, tips the weight in favour of daily price engulfing its Fibonacci support.
H1 timeframe:
Out of the relative strength index (RSI), the indicator reveals early bullish divergence (positive momentum: average gains beginning to exceed average losses), despite price action forging fresh troughs in recent hours.
Technical space, nonetheless, shows that sub $1.1467 resistance we have scope to take aim at $1.14.
Observed Technical Levels:
The combination of daily Fibonacci support from $1.1420-1.1460, H4 support between $1.1431 and $1.1444 and the H1 timeframe’s RSI chalking up bullish divergence, echoes a potential short-term recovery. However, recognising the downtrend in this market, any upside attempt may be capped by H1 resistance at $1.1467.