9/14 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
Wednesday was a typical CPI trading day characterized by traps and volatility. After the data release, we saw an initial drop, followed by a 30+ point rally, confirming the prediction that the first move after release would fade. Despite this, we ended up in the same 4500-4540 range we've been in for all of September.
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up
World News
More stimulus for the Chinese economy as the PBoC lower the bank reserve rate
Key Structures
A large triangle has formed with 4459 level being support and resistance being 4565-70. This is the core pattern for September and everything between 4459-4570 is a broad chop range. The pattern has a mild 60% upward resolution bias, but traders need to be prepared to trade it whichever way it breaks.
Support Levels
Supports are at 4516, 4512, 4502 (major), 4496, 4486, 4468-72 (major), 4459 (major), 4443, 4438 (major), 4425, 4418, 4410, 4400, 4392(major), 4377, 4366, 4355 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are at 4522 (major), 4528, 4532-35 (major), 4540-42 (major), 4549, 4556, 4565-70 (major), 4573, 4580, 4585 (major), 4598, 4605-08 (major), 4617, 4624, 4633 (major), 4642, 4647-50 (major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673.
Trading Plan
Bulls control as long as 4502 keeps holding. If it does, resistance of the triangle at 4565-70 remains the macro target. If 4502 fails, bears win and traders should consider shorting for a move down the levels, likely to 4460 at least. Trading within the 4500-4540 range is unpredictable and price will play the levels.
Wrap Up
Despite the volatility and traps of CPI trading days, Wednesday showed that with careful planning and strategy, it's possible to navigate these challenges successfully. The key is to wait for the initial trap or two, take profits at the first major level, then get out and hold a runner in case we trend. This approach makes these difficult, trap-filled days very high win rate, easy sessions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Wednesday was a typical CPI trading day characterized by traps and volatility. After the data release, we saw an initial drop, followed by a 30+ point rally, confirming the prediction that the first move after release would fade. Despite this, we ended up in the same 4500-4540 range we've been in for all of September.
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up
World News
More stimulus for the Chinese economy as the PBoC lower the bank reserve rate
Key Structures
A large triangle has formed with 4459 level being support and resistance being 4565-70. This is the core pattern for September and everything between 4459-4570 is a broad chop range. The pattern has a mild 60% upward resolution bias, but traders need to be prepared to trade it whichever way it breaks.
Support Levels
Supports are at 4516, 4512, 4502 (major), 4496, 4486, 4468-72 (major), 4459 (major), 4443, 4438 (major), 4425, 4418, 4410, 4400, 4392(major), 4377, 4366, 4355 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are at 4522 (major), 4528, 4532-35 (major), 4540-42 (major), 4549, 4556, 4565-70 (major), 4573, 4580, 4585 (major), 4598, 4605-08 (major), 4617, 4624, 4633 (major), 4642, 4647-50 (major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673.
Trading Plan
Bulls control as long as 4502 keeps holding. If it does, resistance of the triangle at 4565-70 remains the macro target. If 4502 fails, bears win and traders should consider shorting for a move down the levels, likely to 4460 at least. Trading within the 4500-4540 range is unpredictable and price will play the levels.
Wrap Up
Despite the volatility and traps of CPI trading days, Wednesday showed that with careful planning and strategy, it's possible to navigate these challenges successfully. The key is to wait for the initial trap or two, take profits at the first major level, then get out and hold a runner in case we trend. This approach makes these difficult, trap-filled days very high win rate, easy sessions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
