9/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
After a choppy Wednesday, traders were rewarded with a solid move on Thursday. I had been long at 4503-97 since Wednesday morning after CPI, adding to my position at 4518 at close. This was due to a failed breakdown, a core setup that often traps shorts and allows for long entries. We saw a 60+ point follow through off this. As predicted, we rallied to 4540ish, saw a dip, then continued up to 4560+. We are now up 65 points from Wednesday’s low, but with heavy resistances overhead.
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
UAW strike closes Ford, GM, and Stellantis factories.
Key Structures
A large triangle has formed with 4460 level being support and resistance being 4562-65. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4460-4565 is a broad chop range. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. The 4460 support level connects the two rising August lows. Higher lows means uptrend and if August 20th was “the bottom” for any type of sustained uptrend - that will need to hold.
Support Levels
The major support levels are 4543-45, 4529-32, 4506, 4476, 4461, 4425, 4418, and 4392. These are not comprehensive and some are simply select major structures to take note of.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are 4562, 4573, 4580-4584, 4609, 4640, and 4648. We are closing Thursday at major resistance, having arrived finally at triangle resistance — noted in the dashed green and red horizontal lines. This is a big level, a complex level, and a level that will take time to work through.
Trading Plan
My trading plan for Friday is to trade small and seldomly, with the only objective being to protect my profits from this week. I have no edge after a large one directional move and I expect messy, complex action. For those longing, I would recommend small size and freefall risk is high. Only levels marked as major are spots for knife catches. If we continue the push higher, for those looking for counter-trends 4580-84 would be one spot to engage as would 4609.
Wrap Up
We've just had the clean move I had been waiting on all week and now is time for price discovery and waiting for price to show its hand. We are currently at a major resistance zone, with the RSI highly extended and the easy money is made on the long side. Given I have exceeded my profit average for the week by a significant margin, I will largely be sidelined on Friday.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
After a choppy Wednesday, traders were rewarded with a solid move on Thursday. I had been long at 4503-97 since Wednesday morning after CPI, adding to my position at 4518 at close. This was due to a failed breakdown, a core setup that often traps shorts and allows for long entries. We saw a 60+ point follow through off this. As predicted, we rallied to 4540ish, saw a dip, then continued up to 4560+. We are now up 65 points from Wednesday’s low, but with heavy resistances overhead.
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
UAW strike closes Ford, GM, and Stellantis factories.
Key Structures
A large triangle has formed with 4460 level being support and resistance being 4562-65. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4460-4565 is a broad chop range. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. The 4460 support level connects the two rising August lows. Higher lows means uptrend and if August 20th was “the bottom” for any type of sustained uptrend - that will need to hold.
Support Levels
The major support levels are 4543-45, 4529-32, 4506, 4476, 4461, 4425, 4418, and 4392. These are not comprehensive and some are simply select major structures to take note of.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are 4562, 4573, 4580-4584, 4609, 4640, and 4648. We are closing Thursday at major resistance, having arrived finally at triangle resistance — noted in the dashed green and red horizontal lines. This is a big level, a complex level, and a level that will take time to work through.
Trading Plan
My trading plan for Friday is to trade small and seldomly, with the only objective being to protect my profits from this week. I have no edge after a large one directional move and I expect messy, complex action. For those longing, I would recommend small size and freefall risk is high. Only levels marked as major are spots for knife catches. If we continue the push higher, for those looking for counter-trends 4580-84 would be one spot to engage as would 4609.
Wrap Up
We've just had the clean move I had been waiting on all week and now is time for price discovery and waiting for price to show its hand. We are currently at a major resistance zone, with the RSI highly extended and the easy money is made on the long side. Given I have exceeded my profit average for the week by a significant margin, I will largely be sidelined on Friday.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
