Potential for corrective action in the market again
So after sitting out yesterday, I am short yet again today at 4180.
I am looking for some continued downward movement now that we are developing some downtrends, and then I expect the potential of a brief bounce back up. If this is the end of this rally, basically I want to see a good 60 points drop, a 30 point rebound, and then another move back to meet new lows. That sort of mood will give us lower highs and lower lows on shorter timeframes that will paint the picture of us heading lower.
If we get a move lower, to say, the 6hr downtrend and then rally back up here, I believe the market will ultimately head into 4200 territory. The violated 6hr trend needs to be corrected for us to head higher at this point.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4171 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4170 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Yet again, if you feel the market is heading higher, than any dip is a buy zone. I MIGHT go long if we get a 6hr downtrend, although at this point I think if my short gets that profitable I will just cash out and call it a week. A move back up above 4180 may also be an area to go Long and expect us to hit 4200 there, though I would like to see a bit more of a brief downward move before that happens.
The Short Position;
I had said that the peak yesterday was probably a good short, and while I didn't get into it, it appears it was. I went short a little lower at 4180, and I expect the down momentum to not fizzle completely today. I would use caution on jumping into a short at this point though, as shorter timeframes will go into oversold, and especially if the open ends lower, people who incorrectly utilize MFI in a futures market will believe we are oversold on the open and look to drive the price back up.
Economic Data;
None important today.
Earnings;
I went over the major ones in the video, but some health companies are up, some are down, banks are mixed, and Tesla and IBM look poised to head lower due to economic headwinds.
As many have asked about signals I get...
I have a buy signal on ZL (Soybean futures), not that I plan to trade it.
I have sell signals on the Euro (6E), the ES (you're here), 6N (New Zealand vs US$), 6M (Mexican Peso vs US$), 6C (Canadian vs US$), and HG (Copper Futures). I don't plan to trade on any of those other areas other than the S&P today though.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - ........ I still don't know... Neutral with a hint of bullish, but I don't "FEEL" the bullish... I "FEEL" Bearish.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
I am looking for some continued downward movement now that we are developing some downtrends, and then I expect the potential of a brief bounce back up. If this is the end of this rally, basically I want to see a good 60 points drop, a 30 point rebound, and then another move back to meet new lows. That sort of mood will give us lower highs and lower lows on shorter timeframes that will paint the picture of us heading lower.
If we get a move lower, to say, the 6hr downtrend and then rally back up here, I believe the market will ultimately head into 4200 territory. The violated 6hr trend needs to be corrected for us to head higher at this point.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4171 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4170 Downtrend (4/18/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Yet again, if you feel the market is heading higher, than any dip is a buy zone. I MIGHT go long if we get a 6hr downtrend, although at this point I think if my short gets that profitable I will just cash out and call it a week. A move back up above 4180 may also be an area to go Long and expect us to hit 4200 there, though I would like to see a bit more of a brief downward move before that happens.
The Short Position;
I had said that the peak yesterday was probably a good short, and while I didn't get into it, it appears it was. I went short a little lower at 4180, and I expect the down momentum to not fizzle completely today. I would use caution on jumping into a short at this point though, as shorter timeframes will go into oversold, and especially if the open ends lower, people who incorrectly utilize MFI in a futures market will believe we are oversold on the open and look to drive the price back up.
Economic Data;
None important today.
Earnings;
I went over the major ones in the video, but some health companies are up, some are down, banks are mixed, and Tesla and IBM look poised to head lower due to economic headwinds.
As many have asked about signals I get...
I have a buy signal on ZL (Soybean futures), not that I plan to trade it.
I have sell signals on the Euro (6E), the ES (you're here), 6N (New Zealand vs US$), 6M (Mexican Peso vs US$), 6C (Canadian vs US$), and HG (Copper Futures). I don't plan to trade on any of those other areas other than the S&P today though.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - ........ I still don't know... Neutral with a hint of bullish, but I don't "FEEL" the bullish... I "FEEL" Bearish.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!