Trends continue to be mixed as we head into CPI
So since we failed to get a 4hr uptrend, broke below the 30m, and appear to be guided by the 3hr trend timeframe at the moment, I am short at 4151. Looking to see us hit 4130 (the 6hr ascending trendline) and see if we break below that or fail. If we break below that I'll be looking to see if we can head down to the 12hr flatish (slight ascending) trendline at 4185.
I have some concerns here in that I am getting a buy signal on the ES!, however, I don't feel it is a good signal as it comes after that nearly 2% movement up, so the signal is more a lagging indicator than trend momentum shift.
My 6E trade continues to be profitable, with a recent bump putting it close to $2000. That allows me to reduce some pressure off needing to trade on the ES if the S&P continues to act nutty.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Currently just scouting for the 2hr downtrend signal to hit if we keep going lower as the next trend. The last 2hr downtrend was 4118, so currently I expect it to be a higher low unless we melt down a good 20 points over a 2hr period.
The Long Position;
Both the 6hr ascending trendline (a higher low downtrend) and the potential 2hr higher low mark if it shows up, could both be entry points to the upside. I don't know I'll flip my position since I'm in a Short position, as I might want to give the Short some wiggle room to go down further, but if it fails I'll likely have then missed my entry point for these positions. See how I feel when/if they happen.
The Short Position;
I think the breakdown of the 30m was good the last entry point. Currently we have broken beneath the 1hr, so a less secure entry point though still decent move might be if we reach back up and touch 4138, dumping the trade if it ends the 1hr bar higher and holding if it continues to hold below that trendline.
Another entry to a short could be if we move with momentum below the 6hr bar that is currently at around 4130. I would be more cautious on this last one, as by that point we could have several trends calling for a movement up and having been violated past their support levels.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. All eyes on CPI tomorrow most likely.
Earnings;
Nothing noteworthy today.
My sentiment;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Obviously I hope for more downside because I'm in a Short, but I don't have strong data that says we remain here, just had data that we would fall below that 4150 level I had talked about yesterday. The super low volume is making trading very difficult.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
I have some concerns here in that I am getting a buy signal on the ES!, however, I don't feel it is a good signal as it comes after that nearly 2% movement up, so the signal is more a lagging indicator than trend momentum shift.
My 6E trade continues to be profitable, with a recent bump putting it close to $2000. That allows me to reduce some pressure off needing to trade on the ES if the S&P continues to act nutty.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Currently just scouting for the 2hr downtrend signal to hit if we keep going lower as the next trend. The last 2hr downtrend was 4118, so currently I expect it to be a higher low unless we melt down a good 20 points over a 2hr period.
The Long Position;
Both the 6hr ascending trendline (a higher low downtrend) and the potential 2hr higher low mark if it shows up, could both be entry points to the upside. I don't know I'll flip my position since I'm in a Short position, as I might want to give the Short some wiggle room to go down further, but if it fails I'll likely have then missed my entry point for these positions. See how I feel when/if they happen.
The Short Position;
I think the breakdown of the 30m was good the last entry point. Currently we have broken beneath the 1hr, so a less secure entry point though still decent move might be if we reach back up and touch 4138, dumping the trade if it ends the 1hr bar higher and holding if it continues to hold below that trendline.
Another entry to a short could be if we move with momentum below the 6hr bar that is currently at around 4130. I would be more cautious on this last one, as by that point we could have several trends calling for a movement up and having been violated past their support levels.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. All eyes on CPI tomorrow most likely.
Earnings;
Nothing noteworthy today.
My sentiment;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Obviously I hope for more downside because I'm in a Short, but I don't have strong data that says we remain here, just had data that we would fall below that 4150 level I had talked about yesterday. The super low volume is making trading very difficult.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
Comment:
So far we hit that 6hr trendline and bounced off it. Not sure I'm ready to give up on the trade just yet, and we touched the 1hr and didn't get above it (the entry point I discussed)... probably for the first half of the day it is going to consolidate here and hit a direction until the afternoon.
Comment:
Cashed out my trade at 4138 as we pushed above the 1hr at the close of the bar. Gonna sit back and watch, as I made that daily goal. Some pullback on my 6E also
Comment:
Snoozefest today. I think today is competing to have lower volume than yesterday too hah
Comment:
Well, unless we have a sudden pop in volume, we can at least say that yesterday was now the second lowest day in a year... lol... NO volume. The last time we had volume like this was the first trading day post-Thanksgiving and post-Christmas.