Review: Tuesday Globex opened and held under 4046-42 and after we built up enough supply we broke 4030-25 Range low and hit the top of our daily support at 4012. After we got over and held over 4030-25 pre market the shorts from the morning were trapped under 4030 giving us support. As long as 4030-25 wasn't taken out our trade was to the upside back to resistance areas with final target being 4084-77 area but for some reason I formed a very short bias for a reversal today even though we found a bid at support area and did look below and fail away from key level but couldn't help but try to catch reversals from 61-56 and over until finally lost that thinking to see what was happening and figured an end of day probe over into resistance would be in order for todays close and caught a nice pull back reversal from above 61-56 level from 67.50 to 88.50 to end a day.
Overview: We are back in the same place we opened Sunday Globex.... Did anyone get washed out??? Hope not! We are on a mission right now and size is getting their fill. Opened today right at 4084-77 lower end of key Daily resistance with some supply above, currently right on top of T2 High and inside Previous Days Range with two data releases and the fed.... Fun fun, not the best day to try to predict what will happen and think you can catch those moves safely or predict where we will go but for now we know this... we are possibly in distribution mode, we are currently at the top of at our bigger resistance level but doesn't mean we are ready to go down, data tomorrow will bring volume. Depending or not if we are ready to move out of this range we will have to see if key locations get taken out and watch for continuation.
Levels to Watch:
Daily Resistance: 4123-4084 Intraday Resistance: 4084-77 // 4104 // 4124-19 // 4143-37
Daily Support: 4012-3990 Intraday Support: 4061-56 // 4061-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3994-89 IF Broken lower cost basis is in 3957-3940 area
We are currently in distribution balance covering the shorts and cleaning up the supply, we have to be careful at these areas as supply can be cut quick and introduced the same way, we see that we are still holding up and prices are bringing in buyers so business up here is not over just yet but in the mean time we can trade level to level and watch for continuations outside.
Overview: We are back in the same place we opened Sunday Globex.... Did anyone get washed out??? Hope not! We are on a mission right now and size is getting their fill. Opened today right at 4084-77 lower end of key Daily resistance with some supply above, currently right on top of T2 High and inside Previous Days Range with two data releases and the fed.... Fun fun, not the best day to try to predict what will happen and think you can catch those moves safely or predict where we will go but for now we know this... we are possibly in distribution mode, we are currently at the top of at our bigger resistance level but doesn't mean we are ready to go down, data tomorrow will bring volume. Depending or not if we are ready to move out of this range we will have to see if key locations get taken out and watch for continuation.
Levels to Watch:
Daily Resistance: 4123-4084 Intraday Resistance: 4084-77 // 4104 // 4124-19 // 4143-37
Daily Support: 4012-3990 Intraday Support: 4061-56 // 4061-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3994-89 IF Broken lower cost basis is in 3957-3940 area
We are currently in distribution balance covering the shorts and cleaning up the supply, we have to be careful at these areas as supply can be cut quick and introduced the same way, we see that we are still holding up and prices are bringing in buyers so business up here is not over just yet but in the mean time we can trade level to level and watch for continuations outside.
Comment:
Looks like tight action over night to be expected with Data hitting in the morning and Fed later in the day. It might stay tight later on we are currently sitting on top of T2high which shows stability/strength but right at bigger supply area so we are just doing our business without a hurry to leave. They might use the events today to try to sell at higher prices and get more supply but will we stay higher or come back in again or will it go higher at all? tricky day today dont forget our bigger range is 4123-3990
Comment:
Key Areas today will be 4061-56 for Support as we should have buyers below, we would want to stay above or dip and come back out for longs today and Key resistance is this 4084-77 with bigger supply over 4100 and 4120 area so things could go either way, we must be careful at those locations when we get there because size will move price fast, if outside selling comes in later on and shorts will see supply they will drop their bids and we have plenty of supply built up here over a week
Comment:
4100 - 4084-77 very important resistance levels today, this whole move up was short covering and momentum longs and they are selling up here, do we have enough shorts to keep holding us up? when they see more supply bids will be dropping and our supports below are not that strong
Comment:
Was that all the buying we had did we trap longs at our resistance area? watch if we can make a move towards 61-56 from here and get under
Comment:
Setting up for move lower, watch out here
Comment:
Would not be surprised if our high was in for the day, careful with longs today unless we take out HOD and hold over
Comment:
If we take out 4061-56 and hold under watch out on FED today because our distribution range low is 4030-25 which is also our T2 low if on Fed we break that we can see margin calls and people getting sold out, our better cost basis lower is not until 3950-40 area and things could get ugly, unless 4030-25 hold more buying comes and we take out the high or stay within range
Comment:
Failing at Key Resistance, Under Previous Day High, Back Inside T2 range, do not be surprised if we test T2 low today and if we can crack it, then more supply might come out
Comment:
Todays Fed might be a bit too crazy, big caution to get out of trades before 2pm and just watch don't try to catch the move IF it happens the way it is setting up to
Comment:
If we get under 4030-25 don't try to buy dips, if it gets ugly there is room to 3900
Comment:
Cant get under 4061-56 and 4046-42 no lower continuation today but also supply above dont forget so might not see much to the upside either. if this day ends in a dud watch for Globex to make the move lower
Comment:
Took out 4084-77 resistance no go for any move slower while above it, watch next resistance areas
Comment:
Had this move marked out as possibility today but Globex RTH action leading up to this got me very short biased and missed this move when we broke over 84-77 fully for second time and pushed away