The bear market rally has ended and now the index is at a crossroads. scenario 1) the market forms a new base over the summer then rallies to new highs. 2) We retest the lows and head to the 3800 region which is an unresolved magnet. The macro picture is horrible, but as was famously said, the markets stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Trade realities not your opinion, this requires being humble. For scenario 1 to play out, we need to get through the next weeks without strong down days on massive volume. Wait and see.