9/8 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
ES finally chose a direction after spending a full week chopping between 4490-4540, and it was down. As discussed earlier, September is often the most bearish and volatile month of the year. The failure of 4493-87 was the key pivot this week, triggering shorts and putting bears in control. The base has broken down, and ES retraced 61% of the August rally.
Market Outlook: Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
G20 Leaders Summit this weekend in New Delhi.
Key Structures
The big picture structures/levels relevant for today include 4485-90, 4466, 4448, and 4416. These are not comprehensive, nor are they predictive.
Support Levels
The support levels for today are: 4448-50(major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4410-15 (major), 4402, 4390 (major), 4383 (major), 4377, 4356-58, 4348 (major), 4339, 4326-30 (major), 4317, 4311 (major), and 4293 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4456, 4466 (major), 4473, 4485-90 (major), 4496, 4509-05 (major), 4517 (major), 4523, 4532, 4537-40 (major), 4547, 4558, 4565, 4575-80 (major), 4592, 4597 (major), 4607-11, and 4624 (major).
Trading Plan
This relief bounce is in play direct as long as 4448-50 continues holding. The bear case is the loss of 4448. If that happens, bulls will want to see it recover fast. If it can’t and demand is clearly absent, I’d be looking to get short 4438 for a move down to 4424.
Wrap Up
Today is the final day on September contracts and the final day you will be seeing these levels. My general lean is that we can continue to defend 4448-50, then try a relief bounce to 4466-73, possible dip, then up to 4485-4500. If 4448 fails, its a warning that we need another leg lower to 4424 at least. These are very complex conditions - trade light and trade seldomly.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
ES finally chose a direction after spending a full week chopping between 4490-4540, and it was down. As discussed earlier, September is often the most bearish and volatile month of the year. The failure of 4493-87 was the key pivot this week, triggering shorts and putting bears in control. The base has broken down, and ES retraced 61% of the August rally.
Market Outlook: Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
G20 Leaders Summit this weekend in New Delhi.
Key Structures
The big picture structures/levels relevant for today include 4485-90, 4466, 4448, and 4416. These are not comprehensive, nor are they predictive.
Support Levels
The support levels for today are: 4448-50(major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4410-15 (major), 4402, 4390 (major), 4383 (major), 4377, 4356-58, 4348 (major), 4339, 4326-30 (major), 4317, 4311 (major), and 4293 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4456, 4466 (major), 4473, 4485-90 (major), 4496, 4509-05 (major), 4517 (major), 4523, 4532, 4537-40 (major), 4547, 4558, 4565, 4575-80 (major), 4592, 4597 (major), 4607-11, and 4624 (major).
Trading Plan
This relief bounce is in play direct as long as 4448-50 continues holding. The bear case is the loss of 4448. If that happens, bulls will want to see it recover fast. If it can’t and demand is clearly absent, I’d be looking to get short 4438 for a move down to 4424.
Wrap Up
Today is the final day on September contracts and the final day you will be seeing these levels. My general lean is that we can continue to defend 4448-50, then try a relief bounce to 4466-73, possible dip, then up to 4485-4500. If 4448 fails, its a warning that we need another leg lower to 4424 at least. These are very complex conditions - trade light and trade seldomly.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
