9/11 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
IMPORTANT: Effective from Monday, September 11th, ES will roll over from the September (ESU2023) front month to December (ESZ2023). September, which has been the actively traded contract for the last 3 months, will formally expire on Friday, September 15th and stop trading completely.
Recap
Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red days. It began with the key support at 4493 cracking on Wednesday, triggering shorts for a 2-day flush. However, by last Friday, we saw the first post-selloff relief rally of about 40 points. The relief bounce was anticipated, with an entry at 4448 provided for it. This played out well, with a run to 4466-73 overnight on Thursday, followed by a dip, and then a rally on Friday morning.
Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
US dollar slides as BoJ Governor Ueda hints Japan may end negative interest rates before the end of the year.
Key Structures
The first week of September, known for its volatility, bearishness, and difficulty, lived up to its reputation. With CPI, FOMC, and regular September noise still ahead, the volatility is far from over. Notably, a large triangle has formed, with the 4448 level being support and resistance being 4572. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4448-4572 is a broad chop range for ES.
Support Levels
Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Recap
Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red days. It began with the key support at 4493 cracking on Wednesday, triggering shorts for a 2-day flush. However, by last Friday, we saw the first post-selloff relief rally of about 40 points. The relief bounce was anticipated, with an entry at 4448 provided for it. This played out well, with a run to 4466-73 overnight on Thursday, followed by a dip, and then a rally on Friday morning.
Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
US dollar slides as BoJ Governor Ueda hints Japan may end negative interest rates before the end of the year.
Key Structures
The first week of September, known for its volatility, bearishness, and difficulty, lived up to its reputation. With CPI, FOMC, and regular September noise still ahead, the volatility is far from over. Notably, a large triangle has formed, with the 4448 level being support and resistance being 4572. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4448-4572 is a broad chop range for ES.
Support Levels
Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
