9/12 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
After a major 110 point sell at the start of September, last Thursday saw the formal setup for a relief rally leg. This setup followed through with a squeeze to start yesterday, leading to a grinding up relief rally leg that made it to mid 4540s so far. ES is now two green days in a row and ~60 points off last Thursdays low
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World News
G20 ends with very little progress or policy change aside from pledge on renewables.
Key Structures
The large, triangle that has formed with the 4450 level being support and resistance being 4572 is now the core pattern for September. Everything between 4450-4572 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias.
Support Levels
Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
After a major 110 point sell at the start of September, last Thursday saw the formal setup for a relief rally leg. This setup followed through with a squeeze to start yesterday, leading to a grinding up relief rally leg that made it to mid 4540s so far. ES is now two green days in a row and ~60 points off last Thursdays low
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World News
G20 ends with very little progress or policy change aside from pledge on renewables.
Key Structures
The large, triangle that has formed with the 4450 level being support and resistance being 4572 is now the core pattern for September. Everything between 4450-4572 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias.
Support Levels
Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
