Trends are Overbought; But is it time to get back in?
So as I make my living trading on trends, and trends are now mathematically so out of sync, I will likely be sitting out of the market today (and most likely tomorrow as well). Obviously I had called a rally as we closed Friday, but certainly did not expect it to be hitting at this level. You'll see in the video that the Daily descending line appears it is going to be a big deal at stopping this excessive momentum.
I still think we head into the 3600s before any possible longer term rally begins. I do think we are going to have an overall rally in October. I know... I'm giving those mixed signals. Anyways, enjoy the video!
If you don't feel like watching, the trends are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3767 Downtrend (10/05/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3668 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
12Hr - 3956 Downtrend (9/13/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Earnings are mostly minor and irrelevant this week.
Economic Data for the Day has Trade Balance data and more Manufacturing Data. There is also some NonFarm Employment Change but I'd consider that minor today against the Trade Balance and ISM stuff.
Remember your risk management and trade safely.
I am currently;
Bearish on the Short Term
Bullish on the Mid Term
Bearish on the Long Term
I still think we head into the 3600s before any possible longer term rally begins. I do think we are going to have an overall rally in October. I know... I'm giving those mixed signals. Anyways, enjoy the video!
If you don't feel like watching, the trends are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3767 Downtrend (10/05/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3668 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
12Hr - 3956 Downtrend (9/13/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Earnings are mostly minor and irrelevant this week.
Economic Data for the Day has Trade Balance data and more Manufacturing Data. There is also some NonFarm Employment Change but I'd consider that minor today against the Trade Balance and ISM stuff.
Remember your risk management and trade safely.
I am currently;
Bearish on the Short Term
Bullish on the Mid Term
Bearish on the Long Term
Comment:
Oh, side note... In case you haven't heard, OPEC+ is looking to cut production because of the plunge in oil prices (resume of normal oil prices more like, but not how they are seeing it right now). While Oil prices are only part of headline inflation and not core inflation, rise in oil prices tends to bleed into core inflation regardless.
Comment:
All ISM Manufacturing data came in slightly better than expected, and showed growth in manufacturing. Economy continues to grow strong, in spite of inflation issues.
US Oil and Gas inventories declined and came in with significantly lower supplies than expected. Not surprising considering the Biden Administration's attempt to lower those gas prices to get his approval rating up going into mid terms.
US Oil and Gas inventories declined and came in with significantly lower supplies than expected. Not surprising considering the Biden Administration's attempt to lower those gas prices to get his approval rating up going into mid terms.
Comment:
Sooooo I was attempting to examine where this rally may be following any sort of trend, and I think I figured it out. So the 12h Uptrend last had a higher high. Now, we are still currently in a lower low 12h, buuuuuut, it would make sense that if we were going to potentially hit new lows, we'd want the 12h to show that downtrend. I think it is possible we get a 12h uptrend mark, fizzle out, and then we have a lower high for the 12h and begin to descend again.
I can't say this is how I'd have expected that trend to show up, being that it is causing all the lower timeframe trends to go berserk, but it would actually be signaling a likely bear movement overall, and one with enough strength to potentially push us into lower low territory below even my target of 3550.
Additionally, if it continued to push a tiny bit beyond the 12h, we could get a Daily lower high up signal, which on the next descent, would allow the possibility of having a properly channeled movement with the lower high uptrends above the lower low downtrends. I've been talking about the need for that correction to occur. I certainly didn't see it coming in this hot, as I obviously would have just held my 3600 trade to at least 3800 instead of hopping out at 3660.
Overall, I still feel like we head back down lower by the end of this week, and I will continue to stay out until some level of normal trend functionality comes back into play. Luckily for me I made enough Monday to meet my weekly quota. If you are attempting to trade in this, best wishes. Serious up and down swings going on. I'll be interested to see where we end up overall.
Volume per day continues to be decent, I'd guess we yet again hit over 2 million.
I can't say this is how I'd have expected that trend to show up, being that it is causing all the lower timeframe trends to go berserk, but it would actually be signaling a likely bear movement overall, and one with enough strength to potentially push us into lower low territory below even my target of 3550.
Additionally, if it continued to push a tiny bit beyond the 12h, we could get a Daily lower high up signal, which on the next descent, would allow the possibility of having a properly channeled movement with the lower high uptrends above the lower low downtrends. I've been talking about the need for that correction to occur. I certainly didn't see it coming in this hot, as I obviously would have just held my 3600 trade to at least 3800 instead of hopping out at 3660.
Overall, I still feel like we head back down lower by the end of this week, and I will continue to stay out until some level of normal trend functionality comes back into play. Luckily for me I made enough Monday to meet my weekly quota. If you are attempting to trade in this, best wishes. Serious up and down swings going on. I'll be interested to see where we end up overall.
Volume per day continues to be decent, I'd guess we yet again hit over 2 million.
Comment:
Yep, there it is. That 12hr Uptrend tick is hitting here. We would need to stay around here until 1am EST for it to stay
Trade Balance out. Our Exports grew more than Imports, so a reduction in our trade deficit. Economy seems to be moving well.