Trends having higher highs and lower lows; which way to go?
So after sitting back and being less annoyed with the market and doing a proper analysis, I see that I think this level is coming in as a pivotal point in our next move.
The 1hr/2hr are both showing higher highs and lower lows for the previous trends. The 3hr has a lower high and lower low but was violated already. If the 4hr hits it too will have a higher high and lower low, which I have seen it just start to signal here at 4160.75, so if it can maintain this movement up until 9am EST, it will signal than as well.
After drawing several possible trendlines and looking at trends mathematically, my next entry point to a short could very well be 4190 or 4151 if we lose steam here. The area between those two zones to me at this point is likely to be a no trade zone.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4126 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
I would expect at this point to see the 30m at least get corrected, possibly by the end of the day.
The Long Position;
If I see a downtrend on the 30m I would consider using that as an entry for price movement upward. However, I am not sure at this point I want to get into a Long position, so we will see how that move looks then.
The Short Position;
A trend resistance looks to be coming in at 4190. The other end of that trade is falling back below the first lower high we have had, which is the 3hr at 4151.
Economic Data;
The Loan Officer Survey is today. That is the main one I'm interested in to see if we indeed have lending tightening going on during this bank "issue" that may or may not even exist. Otherwise, CPI is Wednesday and should bring some movement into the market.
Earnings;
Disney later this week, but yeah, Earnings are a bit slow this week.
All in all, this to me feels like a sit out and wait kinda day, or look for a pump that hits a resistance that I can short before a potential dump afterwards back down to at least 4100.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral with a bearish bias
Long Term - Neutral with a Bullish bias
As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
The 1hr/2hr are both showing higher highs and lower lows for the previous trends. The 3hr has a lower high and lower low but was violated already. If the 4hr hits it too will have a higher high and lower low, which I have seen it just start to signal here at 4160.75, so if it can maintain this movement up until 9am EST, it will signal than as well.
After drawing several possible trendlines and looking at trends mathematically, my next entry point to a short could very well be 4190 or 4151 if we lose steam here. The area between those two zones to me at this point is likely to be a no trade zone.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4126 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
I would expect at this point to see the 30m at least get corrected, possibly by the end of the day.
The Long Position;
If I see a downtrend on the 30m I would consider using that as an entry for price movement upward. However, I am not sure at this point I want to get into a Long position, so we will see how that move looks then.
The Short Position;
A trend resistance looks to be coming in at 4190. The other end of that trade is falling back below the first lower high we have had, which is the 3hr at 4151.
Economic Data;
The Loan Officer Survey is today. That is the main one I'm interested in to see if we indeed have lending tightening going on during this bank "issue" that may or may not even exist. Otherwise, CPI is Wednesday and should bring some movement into the market.
Earnings;
Disney later this week, but yeah, Earnings are a bit slow this week.
All in all, this to me feels like a sit out and wait kinda day, or look for a pump that hits a resistance that I can short before a potential dump afterwards back down to at least 4100.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral with a bearish bias
Long Term - Neutral with a Bullish bias
As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
Comment:
Went short at 4154 expecting it to break 4151 on a 5m downtrend mark. Definitely will tread carefully here in the event this fizzles quickly during the open.
Comment:
Stopped out for $25..... drats
Comment:
Jerks... lol... totally stopped me out and headed lower without me. 30m Downtrend is signaling here
Comment:
Not that it means anything specifically, but Buffett allegedly dumped billions in stocks and went long on treasures this past quarter as he sees the return on investment era declining over the year. The irony in that Berkshire Hathaway is up 13% in earnings... lol... so take that as you may.
Comment:
There ya go. I went short into the Loan Officer Survey at 4153. Mostly about credit tightening and business scaling back and not looking for expansion.
Appears to show a slowing on Comsumer demand and credit tightening... both of which should show a contraction into the current economic data.
Hit a low though there has been some movement back up since it first hit.
Appears to show a slowing on Comsumer demand and credit tightening... both of which should show a contraction into the current economic data.
Hit a low though there has been some movement back up since it first hit.
Comment:
Well damn, that was short lived... I've been stopped for $100... thought that was going to send things lower........................ stupid market
Comment:
That volume... 🙄 looks like the lowest volume day outside of a holiday all year.