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More bullish than bearish

Long
CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Analyst stock index for June 03, 2020

In this analytical overview, we consider the situation in the stock index s&p 500 index - a popular financial contract that displays the “health” of the stock market with high accuracy. I use the data from CME.

On this chart you see a black horizontal line, it marked an important level of 3,000 dollars for the contract. This is an important psychological level. Note how at the end of February and early March, the price interacted with 3k line. After the breakdown of 27 February was followed by a small upward correction, which ended on low volumes on 4 March (the indicator of the weakness of the demand). Then panic followed through to a minimum of 23 March.

What to expect next?

Recent data suggests that the market is more bullish than bearish.

From a technical point of view, there is an important event is the increase in volume (it is indicated by a black arrow in the histogram in the lower part of the graph). This increase in volumes was due to the characteristic activity of traders on the breakout of the psychological level of $ 3,000. And such activity is an indication of the power of demand because, as a rule, the increase in volume in such situations, indicates the aggressiveness of the buyers.

From a fundamental point of view, the observed strength of demand justified the policy of quantitative easing, which is used by the Federal Reserve to support the economy in crisis.

More importantly, it is ignoring by the stock index's surge of protest happening in the United States in the last days. That is, the confidence with which the index holds above the psychological mark of $ 3,000 a day by day gives more weight to the idea that the bullish trend will continue and the price of the contract is ready to develop in the framework of the current uptrend channel (indicated by the green lines) and recover to pre-crisis highs in February.

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