So, really interesting day. I'll be up front, I am likely done for trading for the week. My risk management plan says that if I have an overly exceptional week, I step away for at least a day. My weekly goal is to capture about 50 points worth of profit on the ES Mini, and I have managed just shy of 200. I know what will happen is I will try TOO hard to hit that 200 mark, and likely get into bad trades.
I saw a few posts about a "rally" today... just to be clear, as of writing this at 13:30, the S&P is still down, although it is well off the lows. And let's talk about the changes in trend that those lows and this upswing have created!
So as I said in my last update, the 4-Hour Downtrend set in at 3813. Then it took it down and made a 6-Hour Downtrend at 3770. Now, it did push past that, but it failed to close below it. So at this point, the 6-Hour Downtrend signal is showing itself as a reversal. Remember, we went through this with the 12-Hour Uptrend Signal, that still is up there holding on for dear life (no 12-Hour Downtrend has developed yet).
I did note that the price barely hit the 3-Hour Downtrend, before bouncing back down hard. Additionally, it has failed, as of now, to close above the 4-Hour Downtrend mark also.
The push up however, flipped our 30 Minute Downtrend to an Uptrend at 3815. However, that has also failed to close above to show it wants to continue.
Likely scenario then... a battle between the reversals of the 30-Minute Uptrend Mark (Supported by the 4-Hour Downtrend Mark) and the currently reversal looking 6-Hour Downtrend. If I wasn't stepping away from the market, I would likely look to sell at 3813 3815, and take profit at 3770, then see how it interacts down there to potentially reverse that trade and buy in at 3770, to see how things react around 3813-3815.
While I'm done trading for the week, and I'm going to shut things down after this, I will still be checking in once after 4pm and once before bed around 10pm, and then I'll still do a premarket analysis tomorrow morning with my coffee. After that, it will probably be some outdoor hiking and kayaking for me until after the holiday weekend!
My overall sentiment is still a downtrend until Monday at least, depending on how well it bounces off this recent touch at the 4-Hour mark. As you can see, a really well designed trend takes form when it pushes past the signal, retraces to the signal, and then pushes off hard. So if that happens, and the 4-Hour Downtrend takes hold, I'd expect a downtrend for 40 bars of 4 hours, so basically all next week.
Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan is the best part of your strategy!
As always, this is not official or professional financial advice, and all liability for trading is on you.
I saw a few posts about a "rally" today... just to be clear, as of writing this at 13:30, the S&P is still down, although it is well off the lows. And let's talk about the changes in trend that those lows and this upswing have created!
So as I said in my last update, the 4-Hour Downtrend set in at 3813. Then it took it down and made a 6-Hour Downtrend at 3770. Now, it did push past that, but it failed to close below it. So at this point, the 6-Hour Downtrend signal is showing itself as a reversal. Remember, we went through this with the 12-Hour Uptrend Signal, that still is up there holding on for dear life (no 12-Hour Downtrend has developed yet).
I did note that the price barely hit the 3-Hour Downtrend, before bouncing back down hard. Additionally, it has failed, as of now, to close above the 4-Hour Downtrend mark also.
The push up however, flipped our 30 Minute Downtrend to an Uptrend at 3815. However, that has also failed to close above to show it wants to continue.
Likely scenario then... a battle between the reversals of the 30-Minute Uptrend Mark (Supported by the 4-Hour Downtrend Mark) and the currently reversal looking 6-Hour Downtrend. If I wasn't stepping away from the market, I would likely look to sell at 3813 3815, and take profit at 3770, then see how it interacts down there to potentially reverse that trade and buy in at 3770, to see how things react around 3813-3815.
While I'm done trading for the week, and I'm going to shut things down after this, I will still be checking in once after 4pm and once before bed around 10pm, and then I'll still do a premarket analysis tomorrow morning with my coffee. After that, it will probably be some outdoor hiking and kayaking for me until after the holiday weekend!
My overall sentiment is still a downtrend until Monday at least, depending on how well it bounces off this recent touch at the 4-Hour mark. As you can see, a really well designed trend takes form when it pushes past the signal, retraces to the signal, and then pushes off hard. So if that happens, and the 4-Hour Downtrend takes hold, I'd expect a downtrend for 40 bars of 4 hours, so basically all next week.
Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan is the best part of your strategy!
As always, this is not official or professional financial advice, and all liability for trading is on you.
Comment:
Kind of ironic I had just posted on my last analysis that I wanted to see a 2mill trading day... and we had ourselves a 2 mill trading day... not that it gave the very best overall on direction.
The majority was obviously the last 30 minutes, like always. And that just went up and down and ended in the middle. Then there was a chunk at the open, like always, and that was all down. Then you had some decent volume all day that took us up but back down... 10% of all the trades was in the last 10 minutes of the day...
I'm still bearish on the downtrend sentiment. The next 6-Hour bad closes at 19:00 EST. Guess we see where that lands us.
The majority was obviously the last 30 minutes, like always. And that just went up and down and ended in the middle. Then there was a chunk at the open, like always, and that was all down. Then you had some decent volume all day that took us up but back down... 10% of all the trades was in the last 10 minutes of the day...
I'm still bearish on the downtrend sentiment. The next 6-Hour bad closes at 19:00 EST. Guess we see where that lands us.
Comment:
Just checking in on the markets before bed. They are fairly flat.
Important trend lines to recognize
6-Hour Downtrend Line - 3770 (Appearing as reversal thus far)
4-Hour Downtrend Line - 3813 (Appears Healthy)
2-Hour Downtrend Line - 3832 (I'd say this looks like the main trend we are following for now)
1-Hour Uptrend - 3815 (Appears to be a reversal)
30-Minute Uptrend - 3815 (Appears to also be a reversal)
I normally don't consider the 15m trends "important", but it can be informative. The 15m is currently an uptrend signal, and that was at 3800. Basically, the trend hit the 4-Hour Downtrend (and respective trendlines near it), bounced to the 6-Hour Downtrend, then bounced up to the 15m Uptrend, before settling down. We are currently below the 15m and above the 6-Hour, although only just slightly.
It should also be worth noting, that the volume of the first half that took us back up and the second half that took us back down were both above the recent average in volume. However, that up includes some down movement, and is only 25% more than recent averages. The down move was almost double what most second half days have looked like.
I'm still holding a bearish outlook. I'll draw a new graph when I'm having my morning coffee tomorrow, though likely still not trading tomorrow.
Important trend lines to recognize
6-Hour Downtrend Line - 3770 (Appearing as reversal thus far)
4-Hour Downtrend Line - 3813 (Appears Healthy)
2-Hour Downtrend Line - 3832 (I'd say this looks like the main trend we are following for now)
1-Hour Uptrend - 3815 (Appears to be a reversal)
30-Minute Uptrend - 3815 (Appears to also be a reversal)
I normally don't consider the 15m trends "important", but it can be informative. The 15m is currently an uptrend signal, and that was at 3800. Basically, the trend hit the 4-Hour Downtrend (and respective trendlines near it), bounced to the 6-Hour Downtrend, then bounced up to the 15m Uptrend, before settling down. We are currently below the 15m and above the 6-Hour, although only just slightly.
It should also be worth noting, that the volume of the first half that took us back up and the second half that took us back down were both above the recent average in volume. However, that up includes some down movement, and is only 25% more than recent averages. The down move was almost double what most second half days have looked like.
I'm still holding a bearish outlook. I'll draw a new graph when I'm having my morning coffee tomorrow, though likely still not trading tomorrow.
Anyways, Came back to check in early, I know we've got 15 minutes left here, but it looks like the downtrend isn't finished. I will update, the 1H uptrend is the exact same as the 30m Uptrend. They ended together and both gave an uptrend signal, but both have failed at this point to drive further and be an actual trend, and not to sound like a broken record, but suspect every trend signal as a reversal until it proves itself.
So... nothing about my assessment has changed. We opened the US trading day at 3877, looks like we may end slightly higher than that. There seems to be a lot of resistance at that 3813-3815 level, based on two failing uptrends and the 4-Hour downtrend.
The 6-Hour downtrend still hasn't formulated. If a 6 hour candle closes below 3770... then I'd expect things to drop to about 3730ish at least, and see a 12 Hour downtrend signal before things reverse.
OR, if I'd also be looking for the downward movement to stall at a 30-M downtrend or 1-H downtrend now, 30m is probably... about 3750, if my math in my head is correct, and the 1-H would most likely be the same 3730 level the 12-Hour trend would develop at.
Safe trading! Overall sentiment from me is still bearish. There are too many people left open from that 3600 range. They want to have a chance to buy back in, and price will swing down to pick them up before we see a chance at a push upward.