Expecting this rally to continue to fizzle and more downside
So I am back in short yet again at 4140, and again expect a movement down to a 6hr downtrend to correct the 6hr violation that occurred. Once we get to that point, I'll evaluate how the move is going to see if I think we will continue to break lower, hold in that area, or the rally will bounce and return.
I have a side trade going on the 6E again. Perhaps my overdetermination to catch a down move there won't turn out well yet again, but, I have had numerous signals of a down move on the 6E, even though it has somehow managed to slowly trickle higher. I expect it to head down to at least 1.075ish.
As for the S&P Futures, I'm really expecting a potential move back down to 4000 again from here, but I will remain open minded that once we hit somewhere around 4070 perhaps we can head higher and out of this price range we have been stuck in of 3800-4200.
The Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4126 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Regarding the recent uptrends, these uptrends of the 30m, 1hr, and 2hr are substantially flatter than previously, and confirms the reduction in sentiment into this rally. So, for today my moves are;
The Long Position;
If we make a move towards 4100 and that falls, I could see a bounce off 4100 back up towards 4120ish. Being that I'm already short, I'd probably hold off on going long with this, but there is the potential. Additionally, if the downward move reverses and stops me out, I may just go Long with the movement upward from 4140 to 4170.
The Short Position;
I'm in it. I think the positive move over the closed trading cycles were incorrect, and I went Long there expecting downward movement here. I think we head to 4100 from here, and then I want to see us break lower at least until we get the 6hr downtrend signal. Once there I will evaluate if I will cash out or continue to hold for more downside.
Economic Data;
Nothing today. Not much tomorrow, but then we have CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, Jobs data Thursday, and some somewhat relevant data on Friday in terms of just how the economy is doing as a whole.
Being that my indicators for nearly everything are red across the board on a Daily timeframe, I expect today to be a down day across most of the Futures Market, and I think there is a strong potential for this down momentum to hold all week.
My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
I have a side trade going on the 6E again. Perhaps my overdetermination to catch a down move there won't turn out well yet again, but, I have had numerous signals of a down move on the 6E, even though it has somehow managed to slowly trickle higher. I expect it to head down to at least 1.075ish.
As for the S&P Futures, I'm really expecting a potential move back down to 4000 again from here, but I will remain open minded that once we hit somewhere around 4070 perhaps we can head higher and out of this price range we have been stuck in of 3800-4200.
The Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4126 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4137 Uptrend (4/07/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Regarding the recent uptrends, these uptrends of the 30m, 1hr, and 2hr are substantially flatter than previously, and confirms the reduction in sentiment into this rally. So, for today my moves are;
The Long Position;
If we make a move towards 4100 and that falls, I could see a bounce off 4100 back up towards 4120ish. Being that I'm already short, I'd probably hold off on going long with this, but there is the potential. Additionally, if the downward move reverses and stops me out, I may just go Long with the movement upward from 4140 to 4170.
The Short Position;
I'm in it. I think the positive move over the closed trading cycles were incorrect, and I went Long there expecting downward movement here. I think we head to 4100 from here, and then I want to see us break lower at least until we get the 6hr downtrend signal. Once there I will evaluate if I will cash out or continue to hold for more downside.
Economic Data;
Nothing today. Not much tomorrow, but then we have CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, Jobs data Thursday, and some somewhat relevant data on Friday in terms of just how the economy is doing as a whole.
Being that my indicators for nearly everything are red across the board on a Daily timeframe, I expect today to be a down day across most of the Futures Market, and I think there is a strong potential for this down momentum to hold all week.
My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral