Trends continue a mixed signal; Patience and Caution is best
So after just being completely spot on yesterday with calling the mispricing of Economic Data, I am sitting here looking at this market and feeling very mixed in my sentiment for today. We have a new higher low 3 hour trendline (which I drew in for today at least) and a lower low 4 hour trendline. It matches what we had the other day with the mixed 1hr/2hr trendlines, however this time I don't know of any missing Economic Data that needs to be priced in correctly.
Ultimately, I could see us bouncing between 4005ish (the middle of the 4hr and 3hr) and 4025ish (the middle of the 1hr and 2hr), however I'm not confident enough in that to go into a Long at this point.
As I mention in the video, being that I am over $4500 up for the week already just on Tuesday, gives me an advantage that maybe I just sit out today and let the Market paint a better picture. I go over in detail the two major price trend lines (not timeline trendlines) of all the highs and all the lows coming together, and without a doubt we are converging into the Apex of a triangle price action. I'd suggest you do some research on triangles in the market, as it is a fascinating topic of study. Realize, a triangle does NOT predict price DIRECTION (Up or Down), but only that there is a pending major price action MOVEMENT coming, as the psychological price points of "I think the market should go lower from here" and "I think the market should go higher from here" collide.
Anyways, a bit of a ramble I suppose there, and if you were looking to skip all this, here are the trends going into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low
2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High
Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
For Economic Data;
It is just the Trades Balance today of Imports vs Exports. I don't foresee this having a major impact on prices today.
Earnings;
I won't mention it all week, but just FYI, Broadcom and Costco are both AMC on Thursday. They hold a decent weight and could cause some after-market trading going into Friday and more volatility during Thursday's trading hours.
Overall, my sentiment is as follows;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Hmmmmmmmmmmm Bullish/Neutral (Maybe back up close to 4100? Not sure)
Long Term - Bearish (but maybe not a new low)
I know, not a lot of that helps for your trading today, but I don't have a solid commitment to how I see the market going today. I'm going to mark it as a Long, only because I think we go up to 4025 today overall, not sure we stay there though.
If you do trade, as always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely. Aim small, miss small. Be a Market Sniper.
Ultimately, I could see us bouncing between 4005ish (the middle of the 4hr and 3hr) and 4025ish (the middle of the 1hr and 2hr), however I'm not confident enough in that to go into a Long at this point.
As I mention in the video, being that I am over $4500 up for the week already just on Tuesday, gives me an advantage that maybe I just sit out today and let the Market paint a better picture. I go over in detail the two major price trend lines (not timeline trendlines) of all the highs and all the lows coming together, and without a doubt we are converging into the Apex of a triangle price action. I'd suggest you do some research on triangles in the market, as it is a fascinating topic of study. Realize, a triangle does NOT predict price DIRECTION (Up or Down), but only that there is a pending major price action MOVEMENT coming, as the psychological price points of "I think the market should go lower from here" and "I think the market should go higher from here" collide.
Anyways, a bit of a ramble I suppose there, and if you were looking to skip all this, here are the trends going into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low
2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High
Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
For Economic Data;
It is just the Trades Balance today of Imports vs Exports. I don't foresee this having a major impact on prices today.
Earnings;
I won't mention it all week, but just FYI, Broadcom and Costco are both AMC on Thursday. They hold a decent weight and could cause some after-market trading going into Friday and more volatility during Thursday's trading hours.
Overall, my sentiment is as follows;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Hmmmmmmmmmmm Bullish/Neutral (Maybe back up close to 4100? Not sure)
Long Term - Bearish (but maybe not a new low)
I know, not a lot of that helps for your trading today, but I don't have a solid commitment to how I see the market going today. I'm going to mark it as a Long, only because I think we go up to 4025 today overall, not sure we stay there though.
If you do trade, as always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely. Aim small, miss small. Be a Market Sniper.
Comment:
I was very, very tempted to go in Long at 3995 just a minute ago, but... I did not. Sticking to my plan of likely staying out today.
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On a side note, I just noticed that the Fed Blackout period has begun. So, the Fed Speakers can't go ramble on at various events and confuse the market. Instead, the market gets to confuse itself lol
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As I thought, the Trade Balance landed with a thud. No one cares. Wasn't even an increase in volume really. It was negative by the way, which it typically is, and relatively close to what was predicted.
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Hmm, not the original price movement I predicted. I went Long at 3982. Willing to take a small loss here, hoping it bounces and I can set a small profit loss and just call it a day and see how it goes.
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Well, one way or another, I either got a good trade, or the market just bought me lunch. I'm hoping for the former, but I'll take the latter, either way I can't complain since I wasn't planning on taking a trade at all today.
Guessing this is leftover jitters from yesterday? I looked around and I don't see what might be moving us away from just a zero day or slight rebound at this time.
Guessing this is leftover jitters from yesterday? I looked around and I don't see what might be moving us away from just a zero day or slight rebound at this time.
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Eh, took the profit loss at 3985. Higher than I would normally set it, but I'll take an easy $150
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The 6hr Downtrend signal is hitting here at 3978 and below. Has to hold down here until 13:00 EST
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Long again at 3976. That is right on this uptrending price line from the lows
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First attempt stopped out for just $50
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Second attempt. Long 3969
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Bailed on that 3971. Just didn't bounce like I wanted. May just go back to kicking back today
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Hmm... the volume profile of the 6hr chart (the trend downtrending here) has a support line of 3957. That may be my next attempt if I go in again.
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Long 3956
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Bailed out at 3961 for $250... was hoping to see a more define rally back up. Might just take a break until 1pm and see what happens with the 6hr bar
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I went long again at 3954. I really think we see a technical bounce here and it is hard for me to stay out when I think we jump back up to 4000 from here briefly
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Was stopped out again at 3958. I think I am just gonna sit back for a bit
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Gone Long here at 3939
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So I bailed after we went into the 40s and I am done for the day. Oddly, I've made $700 today, but it took several trades. I'm going back to my plan of just sitting out. Not sure what is causing this level of movement on a day I thought would be relatively calm.
Comment:
Looks like we had a minor bounce back up towards the end of the day. Sentiment seems to be more into Long than Short, in spite of news headlines and various ideas on here. We got the 6hr downtrend signal, but the 12hr never showed up.
I think most likely I will wait until the morning, but at this point, we have a 30m, 2hr, and 4hr calling for a reverse to correct the previous uptrend, the downtrends of the 1hr, 3hr and 6hr are on the lower end of their funnel... and the only trends we have left to see would be the 12hr and Daily and then we are maxed out for downward movement. We did give up the entire Powell rally, which didn't make a ton of sense anyways, however, he DID say some less hawkish things. I think we rally here briefly, until we get the data points on Thursday and Friday that matter.
Additionally, on other levels, the 6hr down are mostly all in oversold on MFI and RSI, or very close to it.
We did break that uptrending line of the lows, but we lacked volume. Was a really casual and low volume movement down through it. Today's volume wasn't the worst we've seen recently, but I'd expect something a bit more to show commitment.
Oh and lastly, the DailyFX sentiment has flipped to 54-55% Long.
I think most likely I will wait until the morning, but at this point, we have a 30m, 2hr, and 4hr calling for a reverse to correct the previous uptrend, the downtrends of the 1hr, 3hr and 6hr are on the lower end of their funnel... and the only trends we have left to see would be the 12hr and Daily and then we are maxed out for downward movement. We did give up the entire Powell rally, which didn't make a ton of sense anyways, however, he DID say some less hawkish things. I think we rally here briefly, until we get the data points on Thursday and Friday that matter.
Additionally, on other levels, the 6hr down are mostly all in oversold on MFI and RSI, or very close to it.
We did break that uptrending line of the lows, but we lacked volume. Was a really casual and low volume movement down through it. Today's volume wasn't the worst we've seen recently, but I'd expect something a bit more to show commitment.
Oh and lastly, the DailyFX sentiment has flipped to 54-55% Long.