Trends in conflict; FOMC Rate Decision... Suggest Patience
So with the close of yesterday, we have the 30m/1hr downtrends being higher lows and being violated significantly. We then got the 2hr/3hr/4hr all as lower lows. The 6hr was in lower low territory for a while, but just before it closed out that bar, we rallied briefly to give us a slight higher low downtrend signal there.
So basically, we have the 30m/1hr/6hr vs the 2hr/3hr/4hr. Not something I want to get involved in at this point, so I'll sit out.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Strong push upward past 4155 could allow us to head higher to 4200 again. The 30m and 1hr uptrends if we get them up here, will both be higher highs, and both could signal us to head higher as well.
The Short Position;
The volume of yesterday's movement was in the downward momentum. I'll be interested in getting back in if I see a strong push below 4125, which is roughly where the 6hr higher low trendline is currently at as well.
Economic Data;
We had ADP NonFarm Employment data this morning. It came out 200% surprise to the upside. Yep, DOUBLE the expected data, so that job data shows a strong surprise to the upside.
We will still have some PMI and ISM data before this afternoon with the FOMC rate decision. I talked about my opinion on this FOMC rate decision in the video.
Earnings;
Qualcomm is the big one, otherwise nothing significant.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish, just briefly
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, remember your risk management. I am marking this as a Short today, because I think there is more risk going into the FOMC rate decision to push us lower than take us higher.
So basically, we have the 30m/1hr/6hr vs the 2hr/3hr/4hr. Not something I want to get involved in at this point, so I'll sit out.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Strong push upward past 4155 could allow us to head higher to 4200 again. The 30m and 1hr uptrends if we get them up here, will both be higher highs, and both could signal us to head higher as well.
The Short Position;
The volume of yesterday's movement was in the downward momentum. I'll be interested in getting back in if I see a strong push below 4125, which is roughly where the 6hr higher low trendline is currently at as well.
Economic Data;
We had ADP NonFarm Employment data this morning. It came out 200% surprise to the upside. Yep, DOUBLE the expected data, so that job data shows a strong surprise to the upside.
We will still have some PMI and ISM data before this afternoon with the FOMC rate decision. I talked about my opinion on this FOMC rate decision in the video.
Earnings;
Qualcomm is the big one, otherwise nothing significant.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish, just briefly
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, remember your risk management. I am marking this as a Short today, because I think there is more risk going into the FOMC rate decision to push us lower than take us higher.
Comment:
Opening volume is awful. I usually look 50k,40k,30k in the first 3 sets of 5 minutes. First set was about 30, second was just under 20...
Comment:
Services PMI is unremarkable. Bit of a price pop on the data, but not much of a volume pop to sustain anything.
Comment:
ISM Data is out... also looks mostly unremarkable. Slight expansion on most fronts, though some expanded less than others. The largest area of expansion... Prices.
Comment:
25 bps hike as expected.
The statement is exactly what I expected... vague. Not sure where the market will take this, maybe more after the press conference.
The statement is exactly what I expected... vague. Not sure where the market will take this, maybe more after the press conference.
Comment:
I've tried to go short at 4160, see what happens here.
Comment:
Beginning of Powell, if you can't tune in... is basically blah blah, usual stuff. Inflation has gone down, but remains sticky. The labor market is very strong. We watch data. Inflation is the #1 issue they are worried about
Comment:
Stopped out for $250. Not sure I'll enter back in, might wait until after the meeting or even the close to decide how I want to proceed.
Comment:
The discussion on rate cuts... He basically said, they don't forecast inflation going down fast enough for that. IF it happened, he is basically saying, sure, maybe, but that currently there is no appearance of cutting rates this year.
Comment:
Meeting over. To summarize... I think it was a neutral press conference. Not really hawkish or dovish.. pretty much what I expected. No conviction, no guidance, and no idea how things will go forward. He did sort of mention that the ability to pause might rely on restrictive bank lending. Otherwise... snoozefest.