S&P 500 Futures LT Update (March 1st 2021)

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) (March 1st 2021 through 2021)

Low (Entry): 3,648 points
High: 4,000 points - 4,107 points - 4,245 points
Future retracement highs: 4,640 points - 5,036 points - 5,281/5,298 points

Hey guys, so I've been attempting to track the S&P 500 for a few months as part of my Cindicator forecasting challenge. I haven't had the best of luck trying to figure out where my key levels should be expected at, but maybe this iteration of an update may provide a bit more clarity now that we have more bearish reactions to measure off last month's all time high.

See below in related ideas for my progress results leading up to now!

(This is a longer term chart from a shorter time frame I just posted, just trying to zoom out a bit more here)


On with my assessment, I believe the S&P could drop a little bit more this week, towards 3,600-3,750 points range, before finding a new ATH above last ATH at 3,959 points. There's a chance it could be attempting to test the last high in the next couple days, but I still see a short term bearish reaction regardless.

I also believe the S&P 500 could reach 4,000 points before end of March 2021. 4,245 points could come as soon as April or May 2021 as well, but I expect small retraces will occur at each of my fibonacci levels along the way.

I'm still not 100% sold on my fibonacci setup here but I'm looking for more signs of selling pressure off the 1.0, 1.27, 1.618 fibonacci multiplier levels I have plotted here. I have 2 different fib plottings on this chart, using a multi-color fib to come up with more precise micro-targets, and I'm using the cyan fibonacci plots to come up with final macro targets for this current run. The alignment of the cyan fib's 1.618 level seems to be pretty close to the multi-color fib 4.236 level, which leads me to believe the top of this annual run could settle near the 5,000-5,300 points range by Oct-Dec 2021.


The next significant correction after we reach 4,245 points could bring us back down to 3,800 points range and we can deliberate from there if market will go up or down from that point. I believe if the S&P 500 continues to remain bullish through and after May 2021, the next significant targets will be along my 2.618, 3.618, and 4.236 fibonacci levels that I've plotted, which could bring point index up to 5,000-5,300 points range before the next significant selloff.


I'm still looking for signs of a pending crash but it looks like we are safe for now, I would want to see a level under 3,400-3,500 points to dismiss and invalidate all my original bullish ideas. Realistically I think it could crash any time but it seems less likely as we go up and aren't getting extreme volatility just yet. Volatility is definitely increasing but it doesn't look concerning (to me) yet.

My current suspicion is that this bull market will continue in traditional stocks, maybe oil , as well as Bitcoin and various other cryptos, until October-December of this year, 2021. I don't think Gold will follow the same trends exactly but it could still have a run under its belt after a few more months. In October 2021, as long as everything doesn't crash before then, I could expect a huge correction to make up for the amazing run we've had so far, could potentially even be dubbed as the next crash if it happens that way.


Related ideas attached below:

Original medium term time frame here:

Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!