Complete Lack of Volume & trends poised for anywhere; Patience!
So I mention in the video, but make sure to realize how insanely low the volume has been the last two days. Sub 1 million contract days are very, very rare. 2 in a row... well the last time I could find we had multiple was the week right after Christmas of 2021, just before we started the 2022 sell off.
Now I'm not saying we are heading to a freefall again, I'm just saying that with no volume and no movement, this is a time for caution. We had a 2 hour downtrend come in early this morning and it is also a higher low. That means the 30m/1hr/2hr are all calling for a movement up (though for reference, the trends before were all mostly lower lows also).
So the next movement will be the 3hr and see if we bounce there, which will likely be between the 6hr and 12hr trend lines. Once we get a 3hr, we will have a jump with the only next trend being the Daily. I would expect the 30m at least to get an uptrend before we head lower at that point.
So with that said, the trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4128 Downtrend (5/10/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Thus far we have not broken and stayed below the 2hr.
The Long Position;
I would probably wait for a strong move above 4140 and might potentially jump in trying to get at least a 30m uptrend likely around 4160 and see where things go.
The Short Position;
I think the 4132 is a decent entry point down. For the record, I'm NOT taking it, because I don't think I want to trade prior to CPI data. I will likely attempt to catch a wave on CPI and see if I can surf it and jump out once it looks overheated in either direction. So yeah, I don't think I'd jump in to a short prior to CPI here.
Economic Data;
CPI Data is today. I mention in the video, but basically if we come in as expected (which is basically flat) or even slightly below expectations, I just don't think there is anything new to be excited so we may get a small pop but it'll fizzle quickly. I think the bigger danger of a move, is if it comes in to a surprise upside showing inflation is moving back up, and that will help to start nudge us off the cliff we are staying off of for a next leg down.
Earnings;
Disney is after market close. So I'll be watching that for later.
Geopolitical Issues;
Just local stuff here in the US with the argument over the debt ceiling. At no point do I think we will default, because those politicians all have a lot of money in the market themselves, but I do think they will hold things to see if they can scare the market down so they can purchase stocks at a premium. This is why we really need to stop Federal politicians from being able to invest in the market.
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish
Short Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Slightly Bullish
All in all I expect more potential downside than up. I think it is an issue that 92% of the gains in the S&P for the year are on the top 15 companies. It is around 80% is all from just the top 5. At one point do these handful of stocks that are carrying the market break and people look to cash out and the market falls?
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this as a SHORT for the day, but realize I am advising a lot of caution and patience here. My intent is to try and gauge which way the market is going off of CPI, and catch a 10-20 point wave and cash out or look to put profit stops.
Now I'm not saying we are heading to a freefall again, I'm just saying that with no volume and no movement, this is a time for caution. We had a 2 hour downtrend come in early this morning and it is also a higher low. That means the 30m/1hr/2hr are all calling for a movement up (though for reference, the trends before were all mostly lower lows also).
So the next movement will be the 3hr and see if we bounce there, which will likely be between the 6hr and 12hr trend lines. Once we get a 3hr, we will have a jump with the only next trend being the Daily. I would expect the 30m at least to get an uptrend before we head lower at that point.
So with that said, the trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4128 Downtrend (5/10/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Thus far we have not broken and stayed below the 2hr.
The Long Position;
I would probably wait for a strong move above 4140 and might potentially jump in trying to get at least a 30m uptrend likely around 4160 and see where things go.
The Short Position;
I think the 4132 is a decent entry point down. For the record, I'm NOT taking it, because I don't think I want to trade prior to CPI data. I will likely attempt to catch a wave on CPI and see if I can surf it and jump out once it looks overheated in either direction. So yeah, I don't think I'd jump in to a short prior to CPI here.
Economic Data;
CPI Data is today. I mention in the video, but basically if we come in as expected (which is basically flat) or even slightly below expectations, I just don't think there is anything new to be excited so we may get a small pop but it'll fizzle quickly. I think the bigger danger of a move, is if it comes in to a surprise upside showing inflation is moving back up, and that will help to start nudge us off the cliff we are staying off of for a next leg down.
Earnings;
Disney is after market close. So I'll be watching that for later.
Geopolitical Issues;
Just local stuff here in the US with the argument over the debt ceiling. At no point do I think we will default, because those politicians all have a lot of money in the market themselves, but I do think they will hold things to see if they can scare the market down so they can purchase stocks at a premium. This is why we really need to stop Federal politicians from being able to invest in the market.
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish
Short Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Slightly Bullish
All in all I expect more potential downside than up. I think it is an issue that 92% of the gains in the S&P for the year are on the top 15 companies. It is around 80% is all from just the top 5. At one point do these handful of stocks that are carrying the market break and people look to cash out and the market falls?
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this as a SHORT for the day, but realize I am advising a lot of caution and patience here. My intent is to try and gauge which way the market is going off of CPI, and catch a 10-20 point wave and cash out or look to put profit stops.
Comment:
No surprise in either way. Everything basically came in as expected with year over year headline coming in .1% lower than expected.
Comment:
I was able to get in long at 4140, but it looks like the wave may not be tall enough to surf. Haven't even snagged 10 points to get the minimum I look for in a day.
Comment:
I cashed out at 4161 here. Made my 20 points
Comment:
Based on this move we are getting a 30m/1hr/2hr/4hr uptrend (3hr is still in an uptrend from before).
All look to be higher highs but the downtrends are fairly high up here so there is some major risk of lower lows coming out of this if we don't have a strong move upward from here.
All look to be higher highs but the downtrends are fairly high up here so there is some major risk of lower lows coming out of this if we don't have a strong move upward from here.
Comment:
I still think what is happening is a head and shoulders formation in the market, which is really just trends beginning to turn around from going up to moving the entire trend machine down.
It'll really come down to the open and if the upward momentum can continue to climb or if it fizzles and comes back down
It'll really come down to the open and if the upward momentum can continue to climb or if it fizzles and comes back down
Comment:
4166 will be a huge level. A push above will hit the 6hr uptrend but then only have the 12hr left before it would max out on uptrends again if it even gets that high.
Many of the downtrends though are nearby, and a strong retraction where provide several downtrends. I'm not ready to bail on the market yet and run into a Short again, but this is EXACTLY how you begin to draw a head and shoulders formation and why head and shoulder formations exist. A sudden drop will allow several trends to hit lower lows and signal for additional room down, like to about 4050 at least.
Many of the downtrends though are nearby, and a strong retraction where provide several downtrends. I'm not ready to bail on the market yet and run into a Short again, but this is EXACTLY how you begin to draw a head and shoulders formation and why head and shoulder formations exist. A sudden drop will allow several trends to hit lower lows and signal for additional room down, like to about 4050 at least.
Comment:
Average opening volume. Which will feel like high volume based on things lately. I went short at 4160. Going to set a profit stop on it and see if it can run things down
Comment:
News Update; UAE entities have officially gone massive short on US Stocks to prepare for a global recession. Recession or not... I think trends got prepped to head down. If we head lower, but don't head LOWER, than I would think we have the potential to finally break 4200. My initial assessment though, as I've been saying, is this has been a turn of trends to head lower at least in the medium term.
Comment:
I was profit stopped for $100. Going to take a break here and look at the second half of the day
Comment:
Rejected off the higher highs of the 30m-4hr, but supported off the 6hr higher low trendline. Currently below the lower high 3hr trendline and above the 6hr one.I may try another short here at 4150 ish.
Comment:
Being that it didn't give me my entry, I'm like out for the day. I am glad I didn't bail on my 6E trade, so that is still getting somewhere. Puts me a bit above where I wanna be for the week, but if it drops off I'll be late to the Short game. I did make extra last week so no pressure and I'd rather wait patiently to see if any volume begins to pick up and help direct traffic here.
Comment:
30m/1hr/2hr/3hr are all hitting here. The 2hr is actually just BARELY hitting even though the 3hr seems to be solid at this point because the 3hr trend had hit that uptrend 4 trading days ago.
Every one of these is a lower low if they maintain. The 30m has already concluded.
Every one of these is a lower low if they maintain. The 30m has already concluded.
Comment:
I think I'm gonna go short here in a second. Looking for the RSI/MFI overbought indicator on the 10,000 tic chart and then lost that momentum up
Comment:
I really wanna hit that short at 4160, but with 10 minutes left I think I'll just pick up tomorrow and not carry anything overnight.
Comment:
The day was propped up basically on the back of the tech industry yet again, and more specifically mostly just your major tech companies. As all of them hit new highs, is it going to come to the point that people decide to cash out on some of these stocks that are stopping us from slipping off the cliff?