Yet again, we nearly max out trends to the down
First off, I just want to say... My 6E (Euro/USD) call was my money maker this morning. I didn't go in overnight, but when I woke up I immediately saw the draw down in the 6E and hopped in. I made about $800 off that, and got out, though I think it could definitely be headed for some more downward movement.
However, the S&P Futures is my bread and butter, so I decided not to distract myself further with that and get to work. With the volatility of yesterday and this recent down move, we have trends signals on the downside.
Currently on the ESM contract, the 4hr is signaling a downtrend and will finish here at 9am EST. Unless we have a major move upward, I expect that bar to finish off with this downtrend signal.
The ES! overlay contract has the same 4hr downtrend bar forming, but additionally has a potential 6hr downtrend signal, the last downtrend signal it has left. The ESM contract never provided a 6hr uptrend, so that signal is only on the ES! contract because of the price difference between contracts. Once the 4hr bar finalizes, I'll be looking to see if the momentum wants to carry down until 13:00 EST to finalize the 6hr downtrend on the ES!, at which point I'll be looking for a Long position by then. However, I might look for initial long positions at 9 EST based on the ESM contract. Prime scenario, is that at 9 EST I'm able to get a good Long position, cash out, the market drops again until 13:00 EST to also get the 6hr downtrend, I go long again, and double my profit.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3973 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3968 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I believe I explained that above, but looking for this movement down to simmer and rally back up, at least briefly, at around 9am EST. If it doesn't, I'd be looking for a rally up at 13:00 EST.
The Short Position;
If we rally up without grabbing the trends we are signaling, or if there is a rally at 9am EST that looks like it will falter, I may look for a short position back down to get a 6hr downtrend mark. This is a riskier approach from my analysis, and I may avoid this position.
Economic Data;
Durable Goods is today and some manufacturing PMI. I'm still waiting for the strong labor market of yesterday to be priced in, which with this down move, appears to be happening this morning.
My sentiment on the day from the current position of 3940 is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Bullish
Long Term -Neutral
However, the S&P Futures is my bread and butter, so I decided not to distract myself further with that and get to work. With the volatility of yesterday and this recent down move, we have trends signals on the downside.
Currently on the ESM contract, the 4hr is signaling a downtrend and will finish here at 9am EST. Unless we have a major move upward, I expect that bar to finish off with this downtrend signal.
The ES! overlay contract has the same 4hr downtrend bar forming, but additionally has a potential 6hr downtrend signal, the last downtrend signal it has left. The ESM contract never provided a 6hr uptrend, so that signal is only on the ES! contract because of the price difference between contracts. Once the 4hr bar finalizes, I'll be looking to see if the momentum wants to carry down until 13:00 EST to finalize the 6hr downtrend on the ES!, at which point I'll be looking for a Long position by then. However, I might look for initial long positions at 9 EST based on the ESM contract. Prime scenario, is that at 9 EST I'm able to get a good Long position, cash out, the market drops again until 13:00 EST to also get the 6hr downtrend, I go long again, and double my profit.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3973 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3968 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I believe I explained that above, but looking for this movement down to simmer and rally back up, at least briefly, at around 9am EST. If it doesn't, I'd be looking for a rally up at 13:00 EST.
The Short Position;
If we rally up without grabbing the trends we are signaling, or if there is a rally at 9am EST that looks like it will falter, I may look for a short position back down to get a 6hr downtrend mark. This is a riskier approach from my analysis, and I may avoid this position.
Economic Data;
Durable Goods is today and some manufacturing PMI. I'm still waiting for the strong labor market of yesterday to be priced in, which with this down move, appears to be happening this morning.
My sentiment on the day from the current position of 3940 is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Bullish
Long Term -Neutral
Comment:
Ah, I forgot to mention, be aware that FOMC James Bullard speaks today. He is noted as the most "Hawkish" member of the FOMC. Could really cause some driving forces down.
Comment:
Got the 4hr uptrend, the bounce up was about 15 minutes too early for me, no position yet, I'll see where we go from here.
Comment:
I might go Long on Soybeans (/ZS). I was glancing around and saw I got a buy signal about 30 points higher than where we are. Some concern that it blew past that buy signal, but also a potential entry point now at least back up to that buy signal ($1500).
I'm not soybean expert though, so do your own research. I'm trying to figure out why prices went down so much since when it looked like just a technical drawdown when I shorted them a couple weeks ago.
I'm not soybean expert though, so do your own research. I'm trying to figure out why prices went down so much since when it looked like just a technical drawdown when I shorted them a couple weeks ago.
Comment:
Went short at the open at 3961. Looking to see it beat down past the lows at least briefly. Especially with Bullard speaking
Comment:
Cashed out my short for $1000, preparing to switch position
Comment:
Missed the entry point I was interested in by about 3 points. So no Long Position taken just yet. Maybe I'm playing it too safe, it's just been a rough week for sure.
Comment:
Manufacturing and basically the economy as a whole seems it sped up in March so far. Take that for how you want... (Inflation vs Recession risks).
Comment:
Went short at 3975
Comment:
Bleh, profit stopped for $50... might go short again here
Comment:
Here is your headline coming out recently - "Fed’s Bullard wants to press ahead with higher interest rates, thinks financial stress will abate."
Oddly there seems to have been a rally since he spoke. I think it'll die off. I'm short again at 3980
Oddly there seems to have been a rally since he spoke. I think it'll die off. I'm short again at 3980
Comment:
Profit stopped yet again... clearly not pushing down for that 13:00 move. I might sit out then the rest, not sure I want to carry over the weekend, and my next short would likely have to carry over.
Comment:
One more attempt to short this market. In short at 3985