Trends somewhat mixed, but momentum signals more downside
One thing I forgot to mention on the video was the low volume from yesterday. FOMC decision days tend to have a higher volume than 1.7 million. That has also left me a bit cautious the downward move may not stick. If it is going to stick, I'd expect some continued downward motion with higher volume and more conviction.
Overall, trends on the 1hr/2hr are calling for upward movement (and have thus far shown that) but the 30m/3hr call for us to head lower. Additionally, the 4hr and 6hr previous trends that didn't signal on that downward move, and above, are also calling for lower moves, whereas the 12hr has been violated and will want to see upward movement and the Daily is basically neutral with where we are.
So I can't say the trends are giving an extremely clear direction, so I look to a more fundamental which is price action and the lack of bounce into the end of yesterday's session. While we have seen a bounce overnight, I still think we could see some follow through into today, especially in fragile areas like Financials.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
There is still some inconsistency between the ES! and ESM contracts, noted in the * marks.
The Long Position;
Failure to break below the 1hr/2hr could signal a buy in situation for a continuation of the rally we've been having this week so far. I'll be looking for micro timeframes (3200 tick, 5m, 15m) to begin showing an uptrend momentum change if I'm going to try and get into that position, especially after the downward move that ended us yesterday.
The Short Position;
I'm currently short at 4020. I'd like to see us break below the 3960 level (ESM Daily ascending higher low downtrend line) and see some of the ES! trends fall back in line with the ESM trends. This is my preferred situation. If I wasn't short already, or if for some reason I cash out, I'll be looking for an uptrend on the 30m which will likely be a lower high as a renewed entry point to the low.
Economic Data;
BoE has their rate decision in just a few moments. I think it could cause some impact in the premarket trading here. Additionally, jobs numbers are due this morning, currently expected to show strong labor market data. A surprise to either side really could send the market in either direction, with strong labor market showing recession resilience but continued inflation risks, and a weakening labor market showing a recession looming, but less inflationary wage pressure. So trade that as you see fit (or follow along the rest of the market like I try to do).
My sentiment into today (from 3990)
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term -Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
Overall, trends on the 1hr/2hr are calling for upward movement (and have thus far shown that) but the 30m/3hr call for us to head lower. Additionally, the 4hr and 6hr previous trends that didn't signal on that downward move, and above, are also calling for lower moves, whereas the 12hr has been violated and will want to see upward movement and the Daily is basically neutral with where we are.
So I can't say the trends are giving an extremely clear direction, so I look to a more fundamental which is price action and the lack of bounce into the end of yesterday's session. While we have seen a bounce overnight, I still think we could see some follow through into today, especially in fragile areas like Financials.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 3971 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/23/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
There is still some inconsistency between the ES! and ESM contracts, noted in the * marks.
The Long Position;
Failure to break below the 1hr/2hr could signal a buy in situation for a continuation of the rally we've been having this week so far. I'll be looking for micro timeframes (3200 tick, 5m, 15m) to begin showing an uptrend momentum change if I'm going to try and get into that position, especially after the downward move that ended us yesterday.
The Short Position;
I'm currently short at 4020. I'd like to see us break below the 3960 level (ESM Daily ascending higher low downtrend line) and see some of the ES! trends fall back in line with the ESM trends. This is my preferred situation. If I wasn't short already, or if for some reason I cash out, I'll be looking for an uptrend on the 30m which will likely be a lower high as a renewed entry point to the low.
Economic Data;
BoE has their rate decision in just a few moments. I think it could cause some impact in the premarket trading here. Additionally, jobs numbers are due this morning, currently expected to show strong labor market data. A surprise to either side really could send the market in either direction, with strong labor market showing recession resilience but continued inflation risks, and a weakening labor market showing a recession looming, but less inflationary wage pressure. So trade that as you see fit (or follow along the rest of the market like I try to do).
My sentiment into today (from 3990)
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term -Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
Comment:
BoE did a 25 bps hike as expected, with MORE votes agreeing to hike than expected. It's England, and their interest rates are lower than were we are, but I think the sentiment of increased sentiment is important.
Comment:
Continuing jobless claims went up and was slightly higher than expected, but initial jobless claims went down and was slightly lower than expected.
We also know from last week that more people entered into the workplace, so that likely answers why they are diverging.
Overall, strong labor market report. Market seems to be mostly unchanged for the most part on the news at this point, continuing to sit between 3995 and 3988
We also know from last week that more people entered into the workplace, so that likely answers why they are diverging.
Overall, strong labor market report. Market seems to be mostly unchanged for the most part on the news at this point, continuing to sit between 3995 and 3988
Comment:
Looks like the rocket ship has fuel left. Initially the first 15 minute open was really low in volume, but the last 5 minutes looks to have gotten back in line with a normal zone. Looks to be one of those days (or week at this point) that things just don't want to run my way. See what happens.
On a micro level we have a lower low and higher high developing. So, could still go either way, but it does appear that the buy the dip mentality is back.
On a micro level we have a lower low and higher high developing. So, could still go either way, but it does appear that the buy the dip mentality is back.
Comment:
I dipped out with things pushing back for only $200........ might sit out while we get better directional signals.
Comment:
Hah.... my phone alerts me of a price target and I see that ultimately it went where it was supposed to yet again. I alas, stayed out after cashing out my previous trade. Screw you too market......... heh
Comment:
So I did go Long at my zone of 3950 I had mentioned. I cashed at 3985 at the close. Bizarre market for sure.