Thursday 2.09.23 Review: Globex made a move over 4143-37 Resistance into next resistance at 4168-62 where we failed to hold and once RTH opened we corrected inventory back under 4143-37 and held under giving us a signal for short trade towards lower support targets 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77. The way the day started was thinking that there is a chance to get under 4100 and with help of margin call selling push under 4084-77 but when we were still holding over 4100 before 2pm chances for that were slim but 4084-77 was still a good target to hit and test. We did fill the single prints from the Fed and now need to wait for next direction. Had some nice trades today, short from 43.75 area with exit around 84.50 would have been the trade.
Friday 2.10.23 Prep: Previous session tagged 4084-77 Support and closed over it and now we are waiting to see what we will get next, continuation lower? another buy the dip? We are right at the edge of Key Support areas and can still expect to see buyers here, will it continue or hold somewhere around here and reverse later will depend on if its trapped supply coming out or outside selling. Right now we have to give it time and see what kind of structure it builds out to trade from. Going into tonight we watch 4103-4099 as Resistance and 4084-77 as Key Support and Previous Day Low. If we make a move under 4084-77 that opens the doors for a test of 4061-56 and if broken 4046-42 those two areas would need to be taken out for any continuation lower and to see our edge at 4030-25. For upside to play out we want to see buyers either at 4084-77 or strong buyers at 4061-56, our T2 low is at 4123-19 which is our Key Resistance for the day and we should have supply coming out from there which means we will only move there if we find strong buyers or run out of supply under 4103. If selling is not that strong watch for us to balance between 4103-4056 areas,
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 Intraday 4103-4099
Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 // 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4084-77 Key For Continuation 4161-56 Next Key 4030-25
**** We are still in our bigger balance area and until we show a full move out we can stay in these back and forth this whole month unless we start breaking out of these daily areas and holding under/over. Time to be patient and strike when the move sets up.
Friday 2.10.23 Prep: Previous session tagged 4084-77 Support and closed over it and now we are waiting to see what we will get next, continuation lower? another buy the dip? We are right at the edge of Key Support areas and can still expect to see buyers here, will it continue or hold somewhere around here and reverse later will depend on if its trapped supply coming out or outside selling. Right now we have to give it time and see what kind of structure it builds out to trade from. Going into tonight we watch 4103-4099 as Resistance and 4084-77 as Key Support and Previous Day Low. If we make a move under 4084-77 that opens the doors for a test of 4061-56 and if broken 4046-42 those two areas would need to be taken out for any continuation lower and to see our edge at 4030-25. For upside to play out we want to see buyers either at 4084-77 or strong buyers at 4061-56, our T2 low is at 4123-19 which is our Key Resistance for the day and we should have supply coming out from there which means we will only move there if we find strong buyers or run out of supply under 4103. If selling is not that strong watch for us to balance between 4103-4056 areas,
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 Intraday 4103-4099
Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 // 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4084-77 Key For Continuation 4161-56 Next Key 4030-25
**** We are still in our bigger balance area and until we show a full move out we can stay in these back and forth this whole month unless we start breaking out of these daily areas and holding under/over. Time to be patient and strike when the move sets up.
Comment:
Globex built structure over 4084-77 and broke. Going forward we are looking to see if we cant get back over that area and hold that opens up doors for lower targets down to 4040 - 4030 areas and if we get going don't forget about Daily Support at 4012-3990 areas.
Comment:
Acceptance back over 84-77 means no continuation lower unless we get under it, our lower target was hit during globex, if this thing runs out of supply we now watch upper areas for targets IF we get over 4103-1099 up to 4123-19 and if we can get over that 4143-37 as next Key Resistance and if 4084-77 breaks the story changes back to downside
Comment:
No move over 4100 which tells us we still have supply but shorts are covering at this moment so we are not seeing a move lower. Watch this 84-77 area IF we fail here at some point once we built up more supply have a good chance at seeing 4061-56 and 4046-42 and maybe under if enough juice
Comment:
Another failure to get over 4100, watch our lower support we might not have that many buyers there now and could go looking for more
Comment:
Still plenty of short covering at lower areas but we can see that now we have supply because we don't bounce as hard, We should still see a flush under 84-77 Possibly before end if day but we might be looking at slower week next week in more balance unless we get continuation. Overall this week played out well and we are back at the scene of the crime from Fed move.
Comment:
No break under 4084-77 Interesting close at the end of day as they ran into our 4103-4099 Resistance, took the stops over it and came back in before the close. Tells us they got people trapped short in Globex under 4084-77, used that as Support to keep the market over it and then used end of day short covering from day traders when market didn't break to ran it up into resistance. This will be Key areas to watch Sunday night and next week as if we take out 4084-77 then we have over a week of Supply above us and buyers are trapped, could see them start selling out lower next week but I think we need to expect slow bleed this time because we built supports on the way up and we don't want to let it drop too soon