Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 12th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5181 (major), 5176, 5168 (major), 5163, 5155, 5149, 5140 (major), 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5110, 5103 (major), 5092-95 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067, 5056, 5047, 5038-41 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5187, 5198, 5202 (major), 5212, 5220 (major), 5230, 5238, 5248-50 (major), 5262, 5267-70 (major), 5279, 5288-90 (major), 5297, 5305, 5314-16 (major), 5324, 5336 (major), 5344 (major)
Trading Strategy:
CPI Volatility: The recent CPI data release suggests hotter-than-expected inflation. Approach Tuesday's trading with heightened caution, reduced position sizes, and anticipate the potential for large swings and sudden reversals.
Re-evaluate Supports: The CPI data indicates increased potential for a more substantial market pullback. Reassess support levels and be prepared for potential breaks below the previously noted "major" levels.
Short-Term Bearish Tilt: Consider a short-term bearish bias for the day, prioritizing potential shorting opportunities on confirmed breakdowns below key supports or bounces off resistance levels.
Focus on Commodities: Pay close attention to commodities markets, specifically oil and food-related commodities, as recent price increases suggest further inflationary pressure.
Bull Case
Trend Defense: Bullish outlook remains plausible if 5181 and 5168 are defended. Holding these supports suggests a potential path towards resistances at 5203 and 5220.
Adding on Strength: Consider adding to long positions on reclaims of 5187, but proceed with extra caution ahead of potential further volatility.
Bear Case
Breakdown Risk: Breakdown below 5168-63 could signal a reversal. Look for bounces or failed breakdowns at these supports for potential short entries. Be aware that moves can be very rapid during high-impact news releases.
News: Top Stories for March 12th, 2024
Inflation Concerns Surge: The latest CPI data reveals higher-than-expected inflation readings, sparking concerns about persistent inflation and its impact on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates.
Market Volatility: Recent volatility underscores the sensitivity of the market to economic data and geopolitical events. Sectors like technology are drawing additional attention.
Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are fluctuating, reacting to regulatory updates and news of institutional adoption.
Earnings Outlook: Stay attuned to corporate earnings for insights into how companies are navigating current economic challenges.
Geopolitical Impacts: Global tensions, notably the Ukraine-Russia conflict, are influencing commodity markets and overall sentiment.
Additional Factors: Keep an eye on M&A activity, economic indicators, tech regulation developments, sustainable investing trends, and evolving U.S.-China trade relations.
Remember: News-driven events like the CPI release can trigger significant short-term volatility. Stay flexible, be prepared to adapt, and prioritize preserving your capital.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Market Sentiment: Cautious
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5181 (major), 5176, 5168 (major), 5163, 5155, 5149, 5140 (major), 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5110, 5103 (major), 5092-95 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067, 5056, 5047, 5038-41 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5187, 5198, 5202 (major), 5212, 5220 (major), 5230, 5238, 5248-50 (major), 5262, 5267-70 (major), 5279, 5288-90 (major), 5297, 5305, 5314-16 (major), 5324, 5336 (major), 5344 (major)
Trading Strategy:
CPI Volatility: The recent CPI data release suggests hotter-than-expected inflation. Approach Tuesday's trading with heightened caution, reduced position sizes, and anticipate the potential for large swings and sudden reversals.
Re-evaluate Supports: The CPI data indicates increased potential for a more substantial market pullback. Reassess support levels and be prepared for potential breaks below the previously noted "major" levels.
Short-Term Bearish Tilt: Consider a short-term bearish bias for the day, prioritizing potential shorting opportunities on confirmed breakdowns below key supports or bounces off resistance levels.
Focus on Commodities: Pay close attention to commodities markets, specifically oil and food-related commodities, as recent price increases suggest further inflationary pressure.
Bull Case
Trend Defense: Bullish outlook remains plausible if 5181 and 5168 are defended. Holding these supports suggests a potential path towards resistances at 5203 and 5220.
Adding on Strength: Consider adding to long positions on reclaims of 5187, but proceed with extra caution ahead of potential further volatility.
Bear Case
Breakdown Risk: Breakdown below 5168-63 could signal a reversal. Look for bounces or failed breakdowns at these supports for potential short entries. Be aware that moves can be very rapid during high-impact news releases.
News: Top Stories for March 12th, 2024
Inflation Concerns Surge: The latest CPI data reveals higher-than-expected inflation readings, sparking concerns about persistent inflation and its impact on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates.
Market Volatility: Recent volatility underscores the sensitivity of the market to economic data and geopolitical events. Sectors like technology are drawing additional attention.
Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are fluctuating, reacting to regulatory updates and news of institutional adoption.
Earnings Outlook: Stay attuned to corporate earnings for insights into how companies are navigating current economic challenges.
Geopolitical Impacts: Global tensions, notably the Ukraine-Russia conflict, are influencing commodity markets and overall sentiment.
Additional Factors: Keep an eye on M&A activity, economic indicators, tech regulation developments, sustainable investing trends, and evolving U.S.-China trade relations.
Remember: News-driven events like the CPI release can trigger significant short-term volatility. Stay flexible, be prepared to adapt, and prioritize preserving your capital.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
