Trading Plan for Monday, April 1st, 2024
Trading Plan for Monday, April 1st, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery ahead of reopening after long weekend
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery holiday, heightened with geopolitical backdrop)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5307 (major), 5299-5302 (major), 5293, 5287 (major), 5280, 5275 (major), 5270, 5261, 5267, 5252 (major), 5245-47 (major), 5234, 5230, 5222 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5207, 5202, 5186-5191 (major), 5176, 5165-67 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5311, 5316 (major), 5321, 5326, 5329-30 (major), 5337, 5342, 5347 (major), 5351, 5355, 5358 (major), 5362, 5372, 5382 (major), 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5407 (major), 5412, 5425, 5430, 5435-38 (major), 5445, 5451 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Price Discovery: After the long weekend, anticipate market moves as price discovery unfolds. Prioritize patience and focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting.
Consolidation Range: Be aware that the 5300-5320 zone is a new consolidation range, likely to see choppy price action. Overtrading in this zone can be detrimental.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution with long entries over the weekend. If 5299-5302 is retested, consider bids, or, for additional confirmation, wait for the failed breakdown setup (below overnight and daily lows, then reclaim) Below that, only the major levels are of interest for longs.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Support Holds: As long as supports like 5299-5302 hold, bulls maintain short-term control.
Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5302-5320 range, potentially ping-ponging within it.
Breakout Continuation: A decisive break and hold above 5320 could lead to a surge towards 5329-30, then 5347. Reclaims of 5307 are areas to potentially add to longs, with disciplined profit-taking.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5299-5302 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 29th, 2024
Global Humanitarian Crises: Focus on the UNHCR appeal for aid for South Sudanese refugees, the ICJ measures for Israel, the humanitarian situation in Haiti, and the youth mobilization around the UN Summit of the Future.
Climate Change Impacts: Examine the effects of climate change on Nepal's biodiversity and the resilience of communities in Madagascar despite gender-based violence.
Economic Updates: Analyze the latest inflation data from the Fed's preferred PCE price index, Huawei's financial results, and Syngenta's cancellation of its Chinese IPO.
Fed Policy Outlook: Consider Fed Chair Powell's commentary and the impact of the LEI on potential economic growth and the Fed's approach to interest rates.
Market Sentiment: Assess market volatility surrounding the PCE report and potential risks.
Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery ahead of reopening after long weekend
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery holiday, heightened with geopolitical backdrop)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5307 (major), 5299-5302 (major), 5293, 5287 (major), 5280, 5275 (major), 5270, 5261, 5267, 5252 (major), 5245-47 (major), 5234, 5230, 5222 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5207, 5202, 5186-5191 (major), 5176, 5165-67 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5311, 5316 (major), 5321, 5326, 5329-30 (major), 5337, 5342, 5347 (major), 5351, 5355, 5358 (major), 5362, 5372, 5382 (major), 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5407 (major), 5412, 5425, 5430, 5435-38 (major), 5445, 5451 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Price Discovery: After the long weekend, anticipate market moves as price discovery unfolds. Prioritize patience and focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting.
Consolidation Range: Be aware that the 5300-5320 zone is a new consolidation range, likely to see choppy price action. Overtrading in this zone can be detrimental.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution with long entries over the weekend. If 5299-5302 is retested, consider bids, or, for additional confirmation, wait for the failed breakdown setup (below overnight and daily lows, then reclaim) Below that, only the major levels are of interest for longs.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Support Holds: As long as supports like 5299-5302 hold, bulls maintain short-term control.
Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5302-5320 range, potentially ping-ponging within it.
Breakout Continuation: A decisive break and hold above 5320 could lead to a surge towards 5329-30, then 5347. Reclaims of 5307 are areas to potentially add to longs, with disciplined profit-taking.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5299-5302 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 29th, 2024
Global Humanitarian Crises: Focus on the UNHCR appeal for aid for South Sudanese refugees, the ICJ measures for Israel, the humanitarian situation in Haiti, and the youth mobilization around the UN Summit of the Future.
Climate Change Impacts: Examine the effects of climate change on Nepal's biodiversity and the resilience of communities in Madagascar despite gender-based violence.
Economic Updates: Analyze the latest inflation data from the Fed's preferred PCE price index, Huawei's financial results, and Syngenta's cancellation of its Chinese IPO.
Fed Policy Outlook: Consider Fed Chair Powell's commentary and the impact of the LEI on potential economic growth and the Fed's approach to interest rates.
Market Sentiment: Assess market volatility surrounding the PCE report and potential risks.
Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
