In many ETC looks like an indicator of what is to come for the alt coin market. At a macro scale, we are done with 5 waves (blue) by end of 2017. Most analysts believe the early 2019 rally to be the beginning of a new bull run
But
1. 2019 rally appears to be corrective as 3-wave
2. Green C is 1.618x of A similar to Red C is 1.618x of red A
3. Recent drop went below green A, so it being a wave4 is negated
4. Drop looks like a leading diagonal, which can be either an waveA or wave1 of a new downtrend
On the positive side, if we finished a leading diagonal, there should be a bounce especially as a reaction to the 5-month old 60+% correction.
So I expect at least a 20-30% rally as part of the B wave, this would be a corrective rally and have 3-waves
Target1: 0.382 Fib level, also can offer horizontal resistance and resistance from red channel top
Target2: Bluebox, 0.5Fib to 0.618Fib area
Invalidation: Making a lower low will show us this diagonal is not yet done (see stop loss)
This bounce will be the last chance for HODLERS to exit this market, a 3-wave move will be the confirmation.
Zooming In to 1D chart
Leading Diagonal
- We can see 1-5 waves as 5-3-5-3-5 subwaves
- Wave 4 overlaps wave 1 bottom
- Wave1>Wave3>Wave5
Bounce expected to be in 3 waves to at least the 0.382Fib (orange line)
Rewad:Risk = 4.5:1
This macro view aligns with $ETH post linked below where I expect a correction to $50-$15
But
1. 2019 rally appears to be corrective as 3-wave
2. Green C is 1.618x of A similar to Red C is 1.618x of red A
3. Recent drop went below green A, so it being a wave4 is negated
4. Drop looks like a leading diagonal, which can be either an waveA or wave1 of a new downtrend
On the positive side, if we finished a leading diagonal, there should be a bounce especially as a reaction to the 5-month old 60+% correction.
So I expect at least a 20-30% rally as part of the B wave, this would be a corrective rally and have 3-waves
Target1: 0.382 Fib level, also can offer horizontal resistance and resistance from red channel top
Target2: Bluebox, 0.5Fib to 0.618Fib area
Invalidation: Making a lower low will show us this diagonal is not yet done (see stop loss)
This bounce will be the last chance for HODLERS to exit this market, a 3-wave move will be the confirmation.
Zooming In to 1D chart
Leading Diagonal
- We can see 1-5 waves as 5-3-5-3-5 subwaves
- Wave 4 overlaps wave 1 bottom
- Wave1>Wave3>Wave5
Bounce expected to be in 3 waves to at least the 0.382Fib (orange line)
Rewad:Risk = 4.5:1
This macro view aligns with $ETH post linked below where I expect a correction to $50-$15
Comment:
We are likely consolidating as a subwave 4 triangle of the 5th leg, which will have one last drop to green box or the orange line (throw-over)
Comment:
We hit our target green box precisely after the 4th wave triangle broke down. How cool is EW . Note that triangles precede the last move of the price, which means bulls will get their chance soon to play the bounce (50%+ hike) from this leading diagonal
Comment:
Price did a 25% bounce after we called the bottom. This should continue upstream after a correction - due to resistance at 50DMA (orange)
Comment:
40% up since our original post . How cool is EW
As expected, we had an 8% correction before continuing up. I see further upside but a correction (target=green box) has to happen as 5-waves appear to be done
As expected, we had an 8% correction before continuing up. I see further upside but a correction (target=green box) has to happen as 5-waves appear to be done
Comment:
The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI after it made a lower low vs the higher high on the price. IMO the 5 wave are done and we need to correct to the green area
Comment:
3 weeks (Dec 17 comment) since my chart, we expected a 50% hike and today we hit the target zone
Good place to take profits
Good place to take profits
Comment:
Target hit (0.5 Fib) exactly 1 month since this idea was first posted
