ETHUSD: Bears In Control. Watching 544 Area For Next Support.

ETHUSD update: Price has taken out the reversal zone boundary at 614 and has gone as low as the 544 support zone. At this time, there is no swing trade setup present which makes short term decision making simple. As mentioned in other recent articles, environments like this call for the position trade mentality.

A setup is a formation, and a pin bar is what provides the confirmation and trigger for entry. A pin bar alone is not a setup, even if it occurs at an attractive level.

Candlestick patterns appear randomly throughout a chart. What gives a candlestick any value is the location of where it is appearing and that is where predetermined levels come in.

Reversal zone boundaries are levels that define an area where the probability of reversal is greatest. If price goes above or below these zones, and never reversed, it means stand aside and let the momentum play out until price finds the next level.

This is what happened at the 614 level. Price did not even hesitate until it found buyers at the 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). The pin bar tells us that buyers are interested here but there is no formation which means the criteria for a long is not present.

Especially now that the pin bar has been established and price gave it back relatively quickly is a sign that bearish momentum is likely to continue which means avoid any swing trade longs until stability proves itself.

Environments like this are not completely void of opportunity though. In my Ethereium article on S.C. earlier today, I go on to explain more about the concept of inventory building and fishing for fear with limit orders under the market. Cost averaging in these markets is similar to stacking gold and silver coins.

In summary, unless the current candle closes strong (unlikely), it is within reason to expect price to retest the 530s or possibly lower. The 544 to 464 support zone is wide and it may take some time (week or two) before this market can stabilize. This will obviously require the entire coin market to find buyers since they all pretty much move together. Do not get sucked into the pessimism which this community is up to its ears in. If you are a long term believer, then fearful markets offer wholesale price opportunities to build an inventory.

Embrace the risk and think independently and do not use margin. Ask yourself this: if you bought a gold bar for $1300 and the price goes to 1K, are you going to dump it? If yes, I know someone who will buy it from you.

Comment:

Quick update: Uneventful price action but price is consolidating into what looks like a trend continuation pattern. If BTC breaks lower, which is what I am anticipating at the moment, then this market will follow. I am still looking for the 544 support zone to be tested before I evaluate further for any swing trades.