I have been writing about this retrace. My BTC report on S.C. yesterday talked about the slow grind into the bear zone. It is not that I knew this pull back was going to happen, I knew the probability was high. Knowing this helps me to avoid long swing trades in these markets, especially when they appear to be "breaking out".
The 625 level is the .382 resistance relative to the recent structure. Until this level is decisively taken out, this market (along with the rest of the coins) are going to have a hard time making any progress.
The question now is: how low do they go and when to buy? The first level we are waiting for at S.C. is the 544 area. 544 to 464 is the .618 relative to the recent structure coming from the 374 low. A reversal candle in this area will more than likely justify a new swing trade idea.
If price falls through the mid to lower 500's, then the 471 reversal zone boundary becomes the focus. If price is going to reverse higher, this price area offers the greatest probability for it to follow through.
Remember, a is still intact which means short term ideas offer less potential. This is why we exited our recent swing trade so early on S.C. We are not opposed to longs, but they will come with more conservative targets.
In summary, be patient and do not mix up strategies. Inventory building is dramatically different from short term swing trading. It is possible to be long term (inventory) and short term (swing or day trading). If you find this confusing, that is normal. It took me many years to differentiate between the two styles.
Still confused? Pick one style and stick to it. At S.C., our short term plan is to wait for the 544 to 464 and evaluate price action from there.
My gut says we are going to fall downward and your TA (to me) sounds rock solid. However, I want to throw you a curve ball. Been using Wild Theory to explain why really GOOD TA has been less reliable.
This particular chart below is NON TA and it is an unlikely scenario. However, I beat all the other TA experts on trading view by isolating two areas on this chart (those are the red zones and hence why I call it a red chart)
I need to redo the chart as the red highlighted areas misaligned during publication, but the nearly cloned price movement is still easy to spot.
What are YOUR thoughts on price manipulation?