The pump across almost all coins yesterday was a pleasant surprise for those that are hoping for a recovery but there are some serious technical barriers that give me pause. First, for ETHUSD we see this pump did not get us to the either the overhead resistance in red, and didn't come anywhere close to the log resistance line in blue. A look at BTCUSD will see that the first pump that occured before midnight UTC took BTCUSD to the normal resistance line, and the second pump had us bumping along the log resistance line
So technically the ETHUSD pump wasn't as strong, or we didn't get as much as we could, compared to the BTC pump. BTC still sets the tempo for crypto and we see that BTC is grinding against the falling log resistance line. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that the short squeeze was aimed at targeting the relatively high number of shorts, and we will soon see a rare long squeeze to go after the longs, which are at their highest point since early April.
And all that can happen with BTCUSD and ETHUSD staying within the macro pattern they are already following. I am taking my ETHUSD trade cues from BTC and the log resistance line has held strong. I strongly suspect BTCUSD will go down and we will see ETHUSD fall along with it.
Comment:
It should be clear now that this log overhead resistance line from the peak about two weeks ago is really controlling the price action. We also see that the short term resistance is converging on the long term overhead resistance that has been established in early May.
Comment:
Well I am in quite the spot. First I was wrong on this trade and my short is in the red, and now I am publically wrong. Lets look at ETH USD first:
This green candle got wicked exactly where the long term overhead resistance suggested it would, which on one hand, is very nice for my overall bearish sentiment.
We have been in a similar situation recently two times before with ETHUSD, with the price butting against the overhead resistance before sliding down. And we have a MACD on the daily charts that is still reaching lower lows (with the RSI having a slight bullish divergence, not included)
On to BTCUSD
Now perhaps this is the most important chart of the post, and it might be its own post. I last checked the 2D chart about half a week ago and I thought the MACD would would continue to wobble its way down. But today the 2D chart shows a clear bullish cross on the BTCUSD MACD as of this writing, and while we have over a day before this candle closes failed breakthroughs are rare. I did a whole post on how the MACD drifting to zero does not mean we have bullish divergence and it is very possible, and my current belief, that this cross will lead to a lower high and then again a lower low.
And as BTCUSD has a bullish 2D MACD cross I am sure ETH USD will experience one soon (there is already convergence between the MACD and signal).
So it seems I will try and get the price to come down a bit while the RSI cools off on the micro timeframes and then I will flip my position. I will be closing my position manually and this will probably be the last comment for this post unless anyone has questions.
We have been in a similar situation recently two times before with ETHUSD, with the price butting against the overhead resistance before sliding down. And we have a MACD on the daily charts that is still reaching lower lows (with the RSI having a slight bullish divergence, not included)
On to BTCUSD
Now perhaps this is the most important chart of the post, and it might be its own post. I last checked the 2D chart about half a week ago and I thought the MACD would would continue to wobble its way down. But today the 2D chart shows a clear bullish cross on the BTCUSD MACD as of this writing, and while we have over a day before this candle closes failed breakthroughs are rare. I did a whole post on how the MACD drifting to zero does not mean we have bullish divergence and it is very possible, and my current belief, that this cross will lead to a lower high and then again a lower low.
And as BTCUSD has a bullish 2D MACD cross I am sure ETH USD will experience one soon (there is already convergence between the MACD and signal).
So it seems I will try and get the price to come down a bit while the RSI cools off on the micro timeframes and then I will flip my position. I will be closing my position manually and this will probably be the last comment for this post unless anyone has questions.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
The price action ETHUSD show a lot of wicking through the resistance line on the 6h time frame and if you go down to the micro 15m timeframe you can see a few bars finished above resistance before getting dragged back down.
As far as my personal system goes I don't have much more to look for before I go short. We butted against overhead resistance, the candlesticks show a reversal/downtrend beginning cross doji followed by a red candle, the RSI is capped or declining, and the MACD is converging on the 6h timeframe and has already crossed on the 2h timeframe. Both ETHUSD and BTCUSD have been bouncing between resistance and support so I have a target on the way down (which I haven't been focusing on because that can distract me) but here is a quick idea
and for ETHUSD