We just closed the hour with a long legged doji so lets see if this is accurate...
We just saw the price of ETHUSD hit a new relative low and I think we will be stabilizing for the next short while. How long is still up in the air of course. We can see the with Event 1 the divergence built up for over three and a half days and Event 2 happened just over 2 days. Further, the volume that gave us our bounce was much higher on Event 1 as it was on Event Two so I DON'T think we will see 4+ days of sideways trading (orange area) before the price starts to break down again and bearish divergence settle in again (green area).
This bullish divergence is quite apparent on the intra-day (8h) time frames...
... But I am still biased bearish due to what I see on the daily and weekly charts for ETHUSD and the monthly chart for BTCUSD. Also that last rally almost got me in a bull trap before I recognized what was going on (well, I did get bull trapped on XMR but not on BTC or ETH). I suspect we will see the bearish divergence continue to build up until we see it on the daily but from time to time bullish divergence will settle in on lower time frames and then snap.
My shorts closed quite profitable and I have made the mistake of trying to get back in while still in too good of a mood any my optimism was my enemy. I am going to do my best to not trade the next few days, no matter what I see on the charts. Time and time again I have received the advice of not trading after being wins or losses and I have found that to be very good advice. If you are on the flip side of that and you just took a beating maybe do the same as well. (Generic not financial advice disclaimer). After a few days I will look at seeing how the 8h bullish divergence we are seeing plays out for another swing trade but that may be playing too close to the cliff.
Finally, I advice you see my last post where i go over the hidden bearish divergence using the Hull MACD which I used to call slip when ETHSUD was at 465-ish. That might be the "final knife twist" of this downtrend but I don't think so.
We just saw the price of ETHUSD hit a new relative low and I think we will be stabilizing for the next short while. How long is still up in the air of course. We can see the with Event 1 the divergence built up for over three and a half days and Event 2 happened just over 2 days. Further, the volume that gave us our bounce was much higher on Event 1 as it was on Event Two so I DON'T think we will see 4+ days of sideways trading (orange area) before the price starts to break down again and bearish divergence settle in again (green area).
This bullish divergence is quite apparent on the intra-day (8h) time frames...
... But I am still biased bearish due to what I see on the daily and weekly charts for ETHUSD and the monthly chart for BTCUSD. Also that last rally almost got me in a bull trap before I recognized what was going on (well, I did get bull trapped on XMR but not on BTC or ETH). I suspect we will see the bearish divergence continue to build up until we see it on the daily but from time to time bullish divergence will settle in on lower time frames and then snap.
My shorts closed quite profitable and I have made the mistake of trying to get back in while still in too good of a mood any my optimism was my enemy. I am going to do my best to not trade the next few days, no matter what I see on the charts. Time and time again I have received the advice of not trading after being wins or losses and I have found that to be very good advice. If you are on the flip side of that and you just took a beating maybe do the same as well. (Generic not financial advice disclaimer). After a few days I will look at seeing how the 8h bullish divergence we are seeing plays out for another swing trade but that may be playing too close to the cliff.
Finally, I advice you see my last post where i go over the hidden bearish divergence using the Hull MACD which I used to call slip when ETHSUD was at 465-ish. That might be the "final knife twist" of this downtrend but I don't think so.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion