I still have some very strong bearish tendencies but things are starting to look good for a new uptrend for the next several weeks to a month, such as we had in early April. If we get clearly above 800 we can talk about renaming this uptrend a bull run, and if we get above 1600 we can officially call the bull run.
First the daily chart
The most simple indicator we are looking at is the CM_Ultimate, which is a composite of many different moving average strategies. It just turned green, which gives us a go signal. If you want to be more sure you will wait till it is above the CM_Ultimate (or any other moving average you select). This will need to develop over the next few days.
Second is the relative higher low we formed. If you go down in the time frames you will see that each low is confirmed as a low with an RSI bounce out of oversold conditions. The Height different isn’t that great, but it is still there.
Third is the MACD. We see that we are basically bouncing the MACD off the signal line, and if this bounce plays out successfully it will be very bullish. The MACDs for ETHUSD and BTCUSD haven’t been great indicators to use in this sideways market, but had this happened under normal circumstances I would be a lot more enthusiastic. The MACD is shallowly negative, so hopefully when it swings up it will put up some high positive values.
The Hull MACD also seems like it is oscillating upward similar to how we swung up in April. The oscillations of the Hull MACD are not terribly predictive of the force of the upswing but generally, up still means up.
The RSI is in a slight upend and reached the 40s, not really signaling strength or weakness. We have plenty of room to go up or down.
The Weekly Chart
The CM_Ultumate has yet to turn. As this upswing develops we hope to see the price action over the CM_Ultimate and for the ultimate to flip green. Nothing is guaranteed, If this uptrend just ends up being a pump and dump we could still end the week on a re d candle and a red CM_Ultimate.
The price action three weeks ago had a red doji and the close has been support for the last two weeks. Once again, if we had two green candles since then the signal would have been a lot stronger that we were in a clear uptrend.
The Weekly MACD resembles the CM_Ultimate. No signal by itself that you should look to enter long so we should check on this week to week to see if we see convergence leading to a bull cross.
The Hull MACD is oscillating upward, another positive signal for a long swing trade. The weekly Hull MACD is a lot less complicated than the Hull MACD on lower timeframes so that convergence is pretty straightforward.
The Weekly RSI seems to have developed a recent floor at 42. Right now with only two points of contact it doesn’t mean anything, but if as time goes on we should pay attention if this acts as support, and maybe next year or so if it acts as resistance during the next downtrend.
(cont).
First the daily chart
The most simple indicator we are looking at is the CM_Ultimate, which is a composite of many different moving average strategies. It just turned green, which gives us a go signal. If you want to be more sure you will wait till it is above the CM_Ultimate (or any other moving average you select). This will need to develop over the next few days.
Second is the relative higher low we formed. If you go down in the time frames you will see that each low is confirmed as a low with an RSI bounce out of oversold conditions. The Height different isn’t that great, but it is still there.
Third is the MACD. We see that we are basically bouncing the MACD off the signal line, and if this bounce plays out successfully it will be very bullish. The MACDs for ETHUSD and BTCUSD haven’t been great indicators to use in this sideways market, but had this happened under normal circumstances I would be a lot more enthusiastic. The MACD is shallowly negative, so hopefully when it swings up it will put up some high positive values.
The Hull MACD also seems like it is oscillating upward similar to how we swung up in April. The oscillations of the Hull MACD are not terribly predictive of the force of the upswing but generally, up still means up.
The RSI is in a slight upend and reached the 40s, not really signaling strength or weakness. We have plenty of room to go up or down.
The Weekly Chart
The price action three weeks ago had a red doji and the close has been support for the last two weeks. Once again, if we had two green candles since then the signal would have been a lot stronger that we were in a clear uptrend.
The Weekly MACD resembles the CM_Ultimate. No signal by itself that you should look to enter long so we should check on this week to week to see if we see convergence leading to a bull cross.
The Hull MACD is oscillating upward, another positive signal for a long swing trade. The weekly Hull MACD is a lot less complicated than the Hull MACD on lower timeframes so that convergence is pretty straightforward.
The Weekly RSI seems to have developed a recent floor at 42. Right now with only two points of contact it doesn’t mean anything, but if as time goes on we should pay attention if this acts as support, and maybe next year or so if it acts as resistance during the next downtrend.
(cont).
Comment:
So far this trade has developed better than I thought, but we have reached our first major challenge, resistance in the 470-480 area. The hourly chart shows we have found support on the 13 EMA, the price action is in a rising channel (maybe if you squint, wedge) and the RSI is dropping. Very likely we will spill down a bit and consolidate. Given the recent momentum I am sure this will be seen as healthy consolidation on the uptrend, given were we are on the daily and weekly (weekly chart won't be shown because it hasn't changed much).
When we look at the daily chart we are encouraged by the CM_Ultimate turning green and the fact we have closed over the CM_ultimate and the 13 EMA. We see the traditional support is now acting as resistance and if the pattern holds true, we should expect similar resistance at 515, 575, and 675. There will be additional sticking points I am sure but if we do get rejected and start a new downtrend I think they will be these levels. The 48 EMA will probably act as resistance between here at ~500, which is a nice psychological number for support and resistance. With the wider view you see once we breach 500 we get a good uptrend. I will certainly be watching if and how we break through the $500 level.
When we look at the daily chart we are encouraged by the CM_Ultimate turning green and the fact we have closed over the CM_ultimate and the 13 EMA. We see the traditional support is now acting as resistance and if the pattern holds true, we should expect similar resistance at 515, 575, and 675. There will be additional sticking points I am sure but if we do get rejected and start a new downtrend I think they will be these levels. The 48 EMA will probably act as resistance between here at ~500, which is a nice psychological number for support and resistance. With the wider view you see once we breach 500 we get a good uptrend. I will certainly be watching if and how we break through the $500 level.
Comment:
The divergences I mentioned in my last comment lead to a breakdown and consolidation just as I thought. The two hour chart cleans up the indicators a bit and shows a reversal candlestick at 466. We are seeing an impending Hull MACD cross that I am sure will take us up to resistance near 480-490 at least one more time. This whole area has been heavily contested so expect resistance lasting more than a few days at some of these levels.
Providing some comfort is the support line we were able to draw after this dip with three good points of contact. I moved the resistance line to the wicks in stead of the real body on a SWAG that is the best place to be charting now. We should call the first grind against that resistance one point of contact and this next oscillation should provide the second point of contact which may adjust the resistance line.
We appear to be at a decent position to go long for day and swing traders to play this structure. If you are convinced this is a good entry for investing in ETH go calculate your risk reward and figure where you want your stop losses. I however have not switched to full bull yet.
Providing some comfort is the support line we were able to draw after this dip with three good points of contact. I moved the resistance line to the wicks in stead of the real body on a SWAG that is the best place to be charting now. We should call the first grind against that resistance one point of contact and this next oscillation should provide the second point of contact which may adjust the resistance line.
We appear to be at a decent position to go long for day and swing traders to play this structure. If you are convinced this is a good entry for investing in ETH go calculate your risk reward and figure where you want your stop losses. I however have not switched to full bull yet.
Comment:
That pump was pleasantly more intense than I thought it would be. Resistance becomes our primary support and the previous support becomes secondary support.
Comment:
I certainly didn't think we would be getting this far.
Comment:
We are back at that 490 level I was concerned about and the charts make it look like we could be good for perhaps one last pump before we hit a real retracement, or we may be on the edge of the retracement right now. Each one of our peaks has had bearish divergence settle in and then spilled over (Blue lines on the price action). We also see bearish divergence has set in between peak 2 and peak 3. If we get to a 4th peak we would need to take a really close look at the volume, price and RSI. If it continues to have bearish divergence the retracement we have been waiting for is probably upon us.
There are two levels of support keeping us up. The arc suggest that we may be able to maintain the current level and continue up shortly, while the blue line is basically our last line of defence. We have had rising support on the RSI which also suggest we are getting ready for a break either way, but RSI support is a little iffy if we break through the arc support to the blue line.
The MACD is included mostly out of habitas it bears watching as well. I have included the Hull MACD in prior post but is inconclusive right now so I left it out.
There are two levels of support keeping us up. The arc suggest that we may be able to maintain the current level and continue up shortly, while the blue line is basically our last line of defence. We have had rising support on the RSI which also suggest we are getting ready for a break either way, but RSI support is a little iffy if we break through the arc support to the blue line.
The MACD is included mostly out of habitas it bears watching as well. I have included the Hull MACD in prior post but is inconclusive right now so I left it out.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stopped out and going short. Things look really bad.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
Conclusion
This isn’t financial advice. I have a high-risk appetite so I have pulled out by bull costume just in case this uptrend gets moving. The setup is still nascent and a lot of the indicators could be stronger on every time frame I looked at. I also have the ability to take a managed loss on this trade as I did on my last post.