ETHUSD is at a level where it soon can present 2 long opportunities.
1) if we break the downtrend line (green), then the red line will trigger a buy with a stop under recent meaningful support zone
2) if we keep going according to the count and reach 380s-370s, then another long opportunity will arise there with min target of 0.382 retracement
For each scenario the trades' entries, targets and stops (stops and targets may be adjusted with further evaluation, those are just quick-glance targets/stops with the price data available at the moment)
If you have suggestions or think I've missed something important or you disagree completely, please let me know.
Also, sorry for not seeing this recent pump opportunity, as it could have been identified due to the bounce from the bottom trending support, but I've missed it.
Also if you look closely, there was another small scale (5%+) trade recently as a textbook bullish pennant presented itself (with a fake-out to the bottom before the break out to the upside).
1) if we break the downtrend line (green), then the red line will trigger a buy with a stop under recent meaningful support zone
2) if we keep going according to the count and reach 380s-370s, then another long opportunity will arise there with min target of 0.382 retracement
For each scenario the trades' entries, targets and stops (stops and targets may be adjusted with further evaluation, those are just quick-glance targets/stops with the price data available at the moment)
If you have suggestions or think I've missed something important or you disagree completely, please let me know.
Also, sorry for not seeing this recent pump opportunity, as it could have been identified due to the bounce from the bottom trending support, but I've missed it.
Also if you look closely, there was another small scale (5%+) trade recently as a textbook bullish pennant presented itself (with a fake-out to the bottom before the break out to the upside).
Comment:
Just a cleaner graph:
Comment:
Also, for beginners in Elliott Waves note that wave 4 can cross into wave 1 territory when it's a leading or ending diagonal.
Comment:
BTW, since we are right under the downtrend line, a nice short opportunity exists. The probability of success is PRETTY LOW, but the reward/risk ratio is very good.
Entry - 474
Target - 390s
Stop loss - 492
Entry - 474
Target - 390s
Stop loss - 492
Comment:
The downtrend line has moved lower now so stop loss for the short should be adjusted as well to around $485-$487. For me that ETH price would trigger stop on my EOS short as well as a long on ETHUSD.
Comment:
While I was asleep, the trendline was broken and the trigger for buy and close short went thru. I closed my EOS short with a small profit (luckily EOS was more bearish than ETH these last days).
I wasn't able to buy at the red trendline cross or close EOS short at trendline cross (which happened around $478), as the computer where I had my bot installed lost internet connection (ISP's fault..)
So I entered the ETHUSD long trade at around $485.
Now, a few things to take into consideration:
Bullish:
- convincing cross of the downtrend
- bullish pennant formation on short timescale
Bearish:
- low volume on the break out
- high longs to shorts ratio:
Do we need to make any adjustments to the plan? I don't like these bearish arguments. So I'd like to reduce the risk of the trade. We can do that using a good level of short-term stop for a longer term trade:
- we can use 476 as a stop for now as it's right under a recent static resistance.
- we can go even more extreme in this and use 482 as stop as that would invalidate the bullish pennant that is in the making right now, but I think that would be trying to squeeze out too much.
I think I will use $476 as a stop and be happy with that. Now, regarding the targets $571 is the ultimate target for this trade according to the plan and also I will take some profit and also I will put my stop at BE once we reach $530 (that would be the C = A target).
Note that by putting my stop higher now I reduce my risk (as I don't like the trade now due to bearish arguments) but I also increase the possibility of me getting stopped out from a potentially good trade.
Good luck! Let's see how this trade goes.
I wasn't able to buy at the red trendline cross or close EOS short at trendline cross (which happened around $478), as the computer where I had my bot installed lost internet connection (ISP's fault..)
So I entered the ETHUSD long trade at around $485.
Now, a few things to take into consideration:
Bullish:
- convincing cross of the downtrend
- bullish pennant formation on short timescale
Bearish:
- low volume on the break out
- high longs to shorts ratio:
Do we need to make any adjustments to the plan? I don't like these bearish arguments. So I'd like to reduce the risk of the trade. We can do that using a good level of short-term stop for a longer term trade:
- we can use 476 as a stop for now as it's right under a recent static resistance.
- we can go even more extreme in this and use 482 as stop as that would invalidate the bullish pennant that is in the making right now, but I think that would be trying to squeeze out too much.
I think I will use $476 as a stop and be happy with that. Now, regarding the targets $571 is the ultimate target for this trade according to the plan and also I will take some profit and also I will put my stop at BE once we reach $530 (that would be the C = A target).
Note that by putting my stop higher now I reduce my risk (as I don't like the trade now due to bearish arguments) but I also increase the possibility of me getting stopped out from a potentially good trade.
Good luck! Let's see how this trade goes.
Trade active
Comment:
Yep, this does not look good. The short break out with not much volume. The EWs count outlined in the idea graph above is still a possibility. If I get stopped out, I will wait more for downside. More eager traders may try to enter on the trendline retest, but I will probably wait and see how this develops more. We might see new low below $405 and my other long from $380s and adding some more at $340s plan will come to fruition. Is it a good place to short? Maybe, but not in my opinion.
Trade closed: stop reached:
The less risky stop has been reached. Don't like the movement. Will see how i develops before jumping to any new trades.
Comment:
Glad that I got stopped out.
Comment:
The second setup at $385 is coming up soon. Time to get ready.
Stop loss will be pretty big for this one, so might want to make the position size smaller than usual.
Stop loss - $320 area, there is a longterm trendline.
Target 1 (50% close) = $472 => 0.382 of the C wave. Safe bet.
Target 2 (25% close) = $550 , 0.382 of the whole dump from $880 to $385.
Target 3 (25% close) = ~$1150, 1.618 of the 360-880 wave, if we start bullish.
Also, on a side note, really regret getting out of the EOS short :D It never even touched my BE if I kept it, now it's nearly at my target, I just closed it cause ETH was crossing up the downtrend line. EOS really proved to be way more bearish than ETH these last couple of weeks.
Will probably post a new idea with this setup (after cleaning up graph tomorrow).
Stop loss will be pretty big for this one, so might want to make the position size smaller than usual.
Stop loss - $320 area, there is a longterm trendline.
Target 1 (50% close) = $472 => 0.382 of the C wave. Safe bet.
Target 2 (25% close) = $550 , 0.382 of the whole dump from $880 to $385.
Target 3 (25% close) = ~$1150, 1.618 of the 360-880 wave, if we start bullish.
Also, on a side note, really regret getting out of the EOS short :D It never even touched my BE if I kept it, now it's nearly at my target, I just closed it cause ETH was crossing up the downtrend line. EOS really proved to be way more bearish than ETH these last couple of weeks.
Will probably post a new idea with this setup (after cleaning up graph tomorrow).
Trade active:
The 2nd setup time has come, entered @$376, Stop = 357.9. T1 = $543, T2 = $595.
With the SEC news this might not be very probable trade, and pretty likely will get stopped out, but from EWs point, this is a great entry simply due to price being so close to the previous bottom at $358. Very small risk, as compared to potential reward.
If that one is stopped out, next entry @$338, Stop = $325 (due to longterm log trendline from last year being @~$330 now).
With the SEC news this might not be very probable trade, and pretty likely will get stopped out, but from EWs point, this is a great entry simply due to price being so close to the previous bottom at $358. Very small risk, as compared to potential reward.
If that one is stopped out, next entry @$338, Stop = $325 (due to longterm log trendline from last year being @~$330 now).
Trade closed: stop reached:
next entry @$338, Stop = $325 (due to longterm log trendline from last year being @~$330 now).
Bears are slaughtering bulls right now.
Bears are slaughtering bulls right now.
Comment:
Moving entry up to $340