Even with this most recent pump ETH couldn't muster enough buying to break out of this downtrend, and instead seems to have posted another lower high for a large that can be charted off of the highest point of the rebound off of the drop from $200 ETH, this would be the near $138 high on November 21st. Since then ETH has consistently posted lower and lower highs.
There were two points where ETH nearly went into freefall at the $100 mark, on Nov. 25th and 27th. These two lows mark the lower bounds of this large pattern. After these lows ETH managed to have a nice relief rally the drove us back up to $125 on Nov. 28th. This formed another "lower-high" point on the upper bound of the pattern. Yesterday evening ETH tested the $109 mark, a break through that support would likely have resulted in ETH testing $100 again. Since that point ETH has rallied again. Unfortunately for the bulls this rally has even less behind it than the last couple.
If the bulls are strong enough we could see them push all the way up to the upperbound of this pattern (also the $120 fib retracement mark). The $119-121 range is hard resistance that is unlikely to break especially on low weekend trading.
As we can see is very high now after this pump, looks to be moving for a cross down, seems to be reversing and we are right at the upper bound of this large pattern that if it breaks out downwards would represent a continuation of the longer-term downtrend and would likely mean ETH could go below $100 in the upcoming weeks.
At this point in time I am seeing this as a strong short entry at $118-121, with stop loss set 5-10% higher and a price target of $109 (last nights support that was tested). I will be shorting until $109 and from there I will reassess the trend and my positions.
This trend has been playing out very much like I have expected, if you look at my short posted at ETH near $215 you can see that this downtrend is solid and is likely to continue.
I will eventually switch to a position when the time is right but short trades seem to be the trend and the easiest to trade within for now. The risk reward on a short at these resistance levels is much better than the r/r on a long off of this pump that is meeting resistance and seeing decreasing .
**This is not investment advice it is for educational purposes only, trade at your own risk, do your own research, yada yada yada**
Happy trading mates!