There is growing evidence for it. On the above 10-day log growth chart price action has been riding the ‘mean’ log growth line for a little over 1 year now. Throughout this whole time price action trades within an ascending channel, a bear flag. Within this bearish channel a smaller bear flag is printing.
A measured move on the smaller bear-flag confirmation would see a 40% correction in price action.
A measured move on the larger bear-flag confirmation would see a 60% correction in price action, <700 dollars. This is a fascinating level for two reasons:
1) It would be a correction to the golden ratio as was with the 2019 correction.
2) It would be a correction to the lower log growth curve, which is expected before the next bull run FOR Ethereum.
Lastly there is the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart. Two significant events:
1) The GRM (Golden Ratio Multiplier) has now failed as support (green line), a bull market requires support.
2) Price action has exited a large bear-flag.
Is it possible price action keeps rising? Sure. A convincing break of 2300-2400 would void this outlook.
Is it probable price action keeps rising? No.
For the bulls, price action must break above 2300-2400 and hold it for a 2-3 weeks.
For the bears, a correction to 1750 and under is a green light.
It is not all bad news. Would you like to Time-warp back to January 2016 and buy Ethereum for $2? It is possible and no one is talking about it. Will say elsewhere.
Ww
Weekly ETH/BTC pair.
2-week ETH/BTC large bear flag confirmation
A measured move on the smaller bear-flag confirmation would see a 40% correction in price action.
A measured move on the larger bear-flag confirmation would see a 60% correction in price action, <700 dollars. This is a fascinating level for two reasons:
1) It would be a correction to the golden ratio as was with the 2019 correction.
2) It would be a correction to the lower log growth curve, which is expected before the next bull run FOR Ethereum.
Lastly there is the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart. Two significant events:
1) The GRM (Golden Ratio Multiplier) has now failed as support (green line), a bull market requires support.
2) Price action has exited a large bear-flag.
Is it possible price action keeps rising? Sure. A convincing break of 2300-2400 would void this outlook.
Is it probable price action keeps rising? No.
For the bulls, price action must break above 2300-2400 and hold it for a 2-3 weeks.
For the bears, a correction to 1750 and under is a green light.
It is not all bad news. Would you like to Time-warp back to January 2016 and buy Ethereum for $2? It is possible and no one is talking about it. Will say elsewhere.
Ww
Weekly ETH/BTC pair.
2-week ETH/BTC large bear flag confirmation
Trade active:
Broken market structure since Jul 2022.
Comment:
A lot of pushback from the recent update. “You’re wrong”, “Never goes that low” Feeling the judgement.. it’s palpable.
It seems then a few folks are long..
Switching off the log growth curve makes the bear flag very clear to see. Lower highs lower lows, there is no trend reversal here. If candle bodies start closing under 1600, 700 is coming and would be something if it stopped there, 500 might be a better target.
4-day
There’s more.. the moving averages on the 3-day. Normally I do not pay attention to them but I know people do.
Notice the 3-day/200-day SMA curving downwards? Most would look at the crossing up of the 3-day/50-day SMA cross up. However it is the 200 that is more important at this moment. Look left. A moving average curving down like this is telling you something, do you know what it is?
The Blue arrows. Look left. If this were a bullish 3-day life cross price action would already be above 2000 or the 3-day/50-day SMA. Look left. Price action is far from bullish. It is rejecting the 3-day/50-day SMA. This is a HUGE red flag.
It does not matter the market. Stocks, crypto, commodities, the result will be the same.
Is it possible price action continues to move up from the macro low? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
It seems then a few folks are long..
Switching off the log growth curve makes the bear flag very clear to see. Lower highs lower lows, there is no trend reversal here. If candle bodies start closing under 1600, 700 is coming and would be something if it stopped there, 500 might be a better target.
4-day
There’s more.. the moving averages on the 3-day. Normally I do not pay attention to them but I know people do.
Notice the 3-day/200-day SMA curving downwards? Most would look at the crossing up of the 3-day/50-day SMA cross up. However it is the 200 that is more important at this moment. Look left. A moving average curving down like this is telling you something, do you know what it is?
The Blue arrows. Look left. If this were a bullish 3-day life cross price action would already be above 2000 or the 3-day/50-day SMA. Look left. Price action is far from bullish. It is rejecting the 3-day/50-day SMA. This is a HUGE red flag.
It does not matter the market. Stocks, crypto, commodities, the result will be the same.
Is it possible price action continues to move up from the macro low? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Comment:
Price action must not close below 1600 for the last day of August. Should it do so, the forecast grows in strength by some margin.
Comment:
Price action on the 3-week chart has now printed a confirmation candle of the Gravestone DOJI candle before it. Look left. The last time Gaussian channel mean rejection printed price action went on to test the bottom of the channel, currently 900 dollars today. However it will likely be lower by the time that test prints.
The months of November / December should present a good opportunity.
3-week
The months of November / December should present a good opportunity.
3-week
Comment:
A candle body has begun to print under the bear flag pattern. IF by Monday 25th price action does not recover 1600, then the probability of correcting to 700 and below grows considerably.
2-week
2-week
Trade active
Comment:
72hrs until the new 2-week candle closes. Make no mistake what this means IF the bulls do not hold 1600. Capitulation.
2.week
2.week
Comment:
Multiple candles continue to close under the flag following confirmation. Very bearish.
Trade active:
Excellent moment to exit
10hr
10hr
Comment:
A lot of folks asking if this idea is now void.
Is it void?
No.
Price go up. Idea must be wrong. However that’s not reason, that’s emotion.
Why is the idea not yet void?
Look left. The same 2-week chart since publishing continues to print the medium log growth curve as resistance. A two week candle must close above this resistance. Yes previous values stated as support and resistance in earlier posts may now be void as the curve rises with time.
2-week
Price action continues to trend in an upward channel. In of itself, this is bearish.
On that upward channel using the weekly chart there is bearish and bullish points of view.
First the bullish. Looking left to 2019 early 2020 price action tested the golden ratio twice before breaking through in mid-2020. (blue squares). At this time the 3rd test is underway. History suggests a breakout, right? What could go wrong? Have used the same flag, almost a near perfect fractal.
The bearish. In the 2020 flag price action had corrected 94%. More or less the same as every other alt-token on the market. Today many alt tokens have now corrected 90%. Ethereum in 2023 has corrected 75% so far. The full 90% correction takes price action under $500, which is where the bear flag points to.
weekly
The ETH.BTC pair on the 12-day chart seemingly confirms golden ratio resistance. This follows a break in market structure.
12-day
The signs are there..
Is it void?
No.
Price go up. Idea must be wrong. However that’s not reason, that’s emotion.
Why is the idea not yet void?
Look left. The same 2-week chart since publishing continues to print the medium log growth curve as resistance. A two week candle must close above this resistance. Yes previous values stated as support and resistance in earlier posts may now be void as the curve rises with time.
2-week
Price action continues to trend in an upward channel. In of itself, this is bearish.
On that upward channel using the weekly chart there is bearish and bullish points of view.
First the bullish. Looking left to 2019 early 2020 price action tested the golden ratio twice before breaking through in mid-2020. (blue squares). At this time the 3rd test is underway. History suggests a breakout, right? What could go wrong? Have used the same flag, almost a near perfect fractal.
The bearish. In the 2020 flag price action had corrected 94%. More or less the same as every other alt-token on the market. Today many alt tokens have now corrected 90%. Ethereum in 2023 has corrected 75% so far. The full 90% correction takes price action under $500, which is where the bear flag points to.
weekly
The ETH.BTC pair on the 12-day chart seemingly confirms golden ratio resistance. This follows a break in market structure.
12-day
The signs are there..
Comment:
Notice the red candle printing under the mean log growth curve on the weekly chart??
The weekly candle cannot close like this on the weekly chart for price action to be bullish. Look left...
The weekly candle cannot close like this on the weekly chart for price action to be bullish. Look left...
Comment:
Take profits at 2500. Will discuss elsewhere why.
Comment:
A “Spinning top” candle has printed on the 10-day chart. (chart and Description below). Essentially it informs you neither buyers nor sellers are in control of the market.
These candles are interesting from a physiological point of view. The primitive nature of our emotions is on full display here. As this tug of war plays out you should expect one course of action to follow, a significant move in price action.
Once the emotional tug of war is finished, the other side capitulates. Whether that is in the bull or the bear direction. Regardless of direction, the liquidity that entries the market on confirmation will take every participant by surprise.
Any clues which direction? Several.
Statistics first, my bread and butter. the majority of the time, i.e 70% of the time such a signal prints in a colour opposite to the previous candle, this indicates a trend reversal likelihood. For example, as shown in the orange circles:
1) Did can spinning top print Green or Red? Left to right in orange circles, GREEN, RED, RED, RED.
When a Green spinning top printed, the rally continues. If RED, my goodness people, look left ;-)
2) Second indication, stochastic RSI overbought or oversold? As in previous prints. Which is it now? Look at the cross down.
3) Some other indications, but I’ve spoken about them elsewhere aplenty.
Ww
What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick?
“A spinning top is a candlestick pattern with a short real body that's vertically centred between long upper and lower shadows. The candlestick pattern represents indecision about the future direction of the asset. It means that neither buyers nor sellers could gain the upper hand.”
Source:
www.investopedia.com...s/s/spinning-top.asp
10-day chart
These candles are interesting from a physiological point of view. The primitive nature of our emotions is on full display here. As this tug of war plays out you should expect one course of action to follow, a significant move in price action.
Once the emotional tug of war is finished, the other side capitulates. Whether that is in the bull or the bear direction. Regardless of direction, the liquidity that entries the market on confirmation will take every participant by surprise.
Any clues which direction? Several.
Statistics first, my bread and butter. the majority of the time, i.e 70% of the time such a signal prints in a colour opposite to the previous candle, this indicates a trend reversal likelihood. For example, as shown in the orange circles:
1) Did can spinning top print Green or Red? Left to right in orange circles, GREEN, RED, RED, RED.
When a Green spinning top printed, the rally continues. If RED, my goodness people, look left ;-)
2) Second indication, stochastic RSI overbought or oversold? As in previous prints. Which is it now? Look at the cross down.
3) Some other indications, but I’ve spoken about them elsewhere aplenty.
Ww
What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick?
“A spinning top is a candlestick pattern with a short real body that's vertically centred between long upper and lower shadows. The candlestick pattern represents indecision about the future direction of the asset. It means that neither buyers nor sellers could gain the upper hand.”
Source:
www.investopedia.com...s/s/spinning-top.asp
10-day chart
Comment:
A high probability sell signal prints on the 2-day chart. It was May2021 the last time such a signal printed before a 60% collapse followed.
I know, this time is different..
2-day
I know, this time is different..
2-day
Trade active:
Final warning
An alarm just pinged on the Divergence for Many indicator with the first weekly close. 8 oscillators have confirmed negative divergence with price action on the weekly. You can download and install this indicator yourself. Setting it up correctly is important, default settings are not useful for macro shift identification.
A 70%+ correction printed the last time so many oscillators confirmed negative divergence. Will this time be different? The bulls commenting below certainly think so.
Weekly
An alarm just pinged on the Divergence for Many indicator with the first weekly close. 8 oscillators have confirmed negative divergence with price action on the weekly. You can download and install this indicator yourself. Setting it up correctly is important, default settings are not useful for macro shift identification.
A 70%+ correction printed the last time so many oscillators confirmed negative divergence. Will this time be different? The bulls commenting below certainly think so.
Weekly
Comment:
The ETH-BTC pair has now printed 5x 2-week candles below broken market structure. Look at the latest candle to print, this is a huge warning of things to come, look left.
2-week
2-week
Trade active:
A strong bearish divergence has now printed on the 8 day dollar chart. This divergence prints as the BTC pair continues the break in market structure. A 70% correction takes price action to $700.
Nothing has been re-drawn or changed on this chart since first publication.
8 day
Nothing has been re-drawn or changed on this chart since first publication.
8 day
Comment:
Price action has returned to the underside of the bar flag where it was previously rejected at the same time Stochastic RSI crosses down 80 as RSI crosses down 70. Look left.
10-day
10-day
Comment:
Nothing on this 2-week chart drawing below has been changed since it was first presented in the main chart above. It is interesting to see price action now finds resistance in the same upward trending channel that first established itself in May 2022.
If the recent uptrend is to continue a support confirmation of 2500 is first required (the black horizontal line). This will be a good long entry for bulls.
2-week
Latterly on the weekly ETH.btc pair a Death cross is approaching following a break of market structure. In addition a significant bearish divergence is printing. The strongest divergence to ever print in the history of ETH.btc pair price action.
Now I’m sure, judging by the many comments of disagreement, this comes across a something you don’t want to accept. Regardless the facts of the chart are informing you of something to come.
A recent weekly death cross on the btc pair was with the popular token ENJ.btc, Price action dropped 70% after the cross.
It is important to say not all alt-tokens are printing as such, not at all. However a small number are that includes Ethereum. It is a considerable risk to ignore this data.
Ww
If the recent uptrend is to continue a support confirmation of 2500 is first required (the black horizontal line). This will be a good long entry for bulls.
2-week
Latterly on the weekly ETH.btc pair a Death cross is approaching following a break of market structure. In addition a significant bearish divergence is printing. The strongest divergence to ever print in the history of ETH.btc pair price action.
Now I’m sure, judging by the many comments of disagreement, this comes across a something you don’t want to accept. Regardless the facts of the chart are informing you of something to come.
A recent weekly death cross on the btc pair was with the popular token ENJ.btc, Price action dropped 70% after the cross.
It is important to say not all alt-tokens are printing as such, not at all. However a small number are that includes Ethereum. It is a considerable risk to ignore this data.
Ww
Comment:
So far price action has climbed all of 1500 dollars since this idea was published. For many this price action move has voided the idea. Many public ideas are long, very long.
Is $700 still in contention?
Yes.
Why? Look left. All the answers you'll ever need are found here.
On the 10-day chart below price action prints and confirms a hanging man candlestick. This print occurs in the rising channel we’ve been tracking since this idea was first published. It is a technical lower high on this time frame.
1) Notice Stochastic RSI is now crossing down 80 following this bearish signal? Red circles.
2) Notice the failed RSI support?
The one chart very few have given attention to, which has been repeated throughout this idea, is the performance of Ethereum against Bitcoin. In earlier posts we have shown broken market structure against Bitcoin (ETH.BTC) was confirmed.
Now we have a significant confirmation on the monthly chart. On the monthly chart below ETH.BTC has:
1) Exited the rising support channel.
AND
2) Confirmed resistance with the close of March.
Ww
Is $700 still in contention?
Yes.
Why? Look left. All the answers you'll ever need are found here.
On the 10-day chart below price action prints and confirms a hanging man candlestick. This print occurs in the rising channel we’ve been tracking since this idea was first published. It is a technical lower high on this time frame.
1) Notice Stochastic RSI is now crossing down 80 following this bearish signal? Red circles.
2) Notice the failed RSI support?
The one chart very few have given attention to, which has been repeated throughout this idea, is the performance of Ethereum against Bitcoin. In earlier posts we have shown broken market structure against Bitcoin (ETH.BTC) was confirmed.
Now we have a significant confirmation on the monthly chart. On the monthly chart below ETH.BTC has:
1) Exited the rising support channel.
AND
2) Confirmed resistance with the close of March.
Ww
Trade active:
RSI support on the 10 day chart (original chart above and below) has failed, that is confirmed. This is also true for the BTC pair.
The RSI support fails as price action prints a double top.
10 day
The RSI support fails as price action prints a double top.
10 day
Comment:
This chart remains unchanged since it was drawn so many months ago. A high probability signal printed at 3700, which was right under the bear flag resistance.
For the bull case, this is just a bull market correction, as before. Yellow arrows.
weekly chart
However the ETH.btc pair…
The 2 month ETH.btc chart below prints a new candle in 13 days. It would confirm a candle pattern recently discussed on the bearish Litecoin idea “Falling three methods candlestick pattern”. You do not want to see this confirm if you’re bullish.
Lastly the yellow arrow on the btc pair below (November 2020)
corresponds with the first yellow arrow on the dollar chart above. Notice how different the market structure is on the BTC pair when the dollar chart was bullish? Is that the same now?
2 Month
For the bull case, this is just a bull market correction, as before. Yellow arrows.
weekly chart
However the ETH.btc pair…
The 2 month ETH.btc chart below prints a new candle in 13 days. It would confirm a candle pattern recently discussed on the bearish Litecoin idea “Falling three methods candlestick pattern”. You do not want to see this confirm if you’re bullish.
Lastly the yellow arrow on the btc pair below (November 2020)
corresponds with the first yellow arrow on the dollar chart above. Notice how different the market structure is on the BTC pair when the dollar chart was bullish? Is that the same now?
2 Month
BTC
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Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
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Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
August 28th, mark that date down. If by this time the candle body currently printing is not undone and prints the full 2-week body under the medium line, price action WILL test the bottom of the channel, circa 700 dollars depending on month.