Ethereum - "Uber-bullish merge" narrative is nonsense

In our previous article, we dismissed nonsense about the “uber” bullish effect of the Merge on Ethereum. However, we also stated that we would not rule out a temporary bounce in the price while expecting it to have little to no effect on the overall trend direction. Today, we again stick to this narrative and remain bearish on ETHUSD.

We have no reason to change our bias as fundamental factors will continue to weigh on risk assets in the coming months. Additionally, technical indicators are worsening, which suggests more trouble ahead. Finally, as if it was not enough, a slowing global economy will lead to more risk aversion among assets like cryptocurrencies.

Due to that, we maintain our price targets for ETHUSD at 1 000 USD and 900 USD. Though, we have to note that we are growing increasingly bearish on the pair and expect it to drift below our price targets over time.

Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the most recent developments on the daily chart of ETHUSD. Yellow arrows indicate three bearish breakouts and one bullish retracement.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. MACD is neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.

Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate bullish and bearish crossovers. The current constellation of moving averages is bearish.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.