Three waves down and a bear flag/pennant sitting above a
potential at the bottom of the run. The low was off
the longer term dynamic support line too. Eth is trying to turn
here but is depending on Bitcoin to help it break free of the
downtrend from here. As things stand it's a speculative buy on
dips back to 516 with a stop below 510 and becomes a
stronger buy for swing traders only once 562 has been re-
taken and held by the bulls in this argument. It should then
attract more buyers and rally to 630-635. A good near term
trade if we see it materialise, and probably needing Bitcoin to
break above 8600 and hold for it to happen.
Returning to the downside from here, ETH must continue to
hold at 516 on dips - any failure to do so by more than 5
points will tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower
to 481 at least, and more likely to revisit lows at 452-450
again where it will stand a good chance of double bottoming
before the next rally attempt resumes.
Beginning to rally on back of Bitcoin and up 10% or so since
yesterday's call, so still outperforming Bitcoin on both
downside and upside and still the most elegant way of playing
Bitcoin's own swings to create some extra Apha without having
to gear up or margin trade if you don't want to.
For now, raise the stop to just under 560 for a small profit if
hit - or can close out half and let the rest run with stop still
under 560. It has to push above 590 now to attract more
buyers still, which should take it back to 630 where look to
close out - and maybe think about reversing short once the
dynamic underpinning the rally is broken with stops above the
same line by 10 or so points.
Until then ETH is positive, though still very dependent on Bitcoin.
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