Ethereum - Say it ain't so....not all bad tho!
For those who say technical analysis doesn't work in crypto's please explain to me how that is possible when reviewing this chart. What an incredible 4 wave count that touched both the top and bottom trend lines on a falling wedge chart pattern which began on August 31st.
Everyone who has been trading in this space long enough understands that Bitcoin is the master, however, the alt coins move in greater extremes to the upside and downside. It's really a speculators dream. You first understand Bitcoin you can play the alt coins to your benefit.
I'm repeating this, but not everyone reads all my publications. The falling wedge pattern is a bullish pattern despite it's downward trajectory. Despite the lower highs, the lower lows are lessening and forming a flattening pattern. This signals that selling pressure is getting exhausted and a reversal could be on the table. Therefore this pattern is most reliable at the bottom of a downtrend and you ideally want to see 3 touches on both sides of the falling wedge to confirm support and resistance. The only way to successfully trade a falling wedge is to play it's extremes or a bullish breakout of the pattern.
Where is ETH headed based on what we know in this chart?
Moving averages:
20 EMA (pink)
50 DMA (orange)
-ETH made a very bullish move on Dec 20th moving above the EMA 20 which signaled a huge rally climaxing just above the 50% extension. Most of the bear market rallies between BTC and ETH in 2018 have climaxed at the 61.8% Fib. So in some ways this downside move was a bit expected as the market got overbought.
-ETH then made a bearish move falling back inside the wedge and crossing below the 20 EMA, but finding support again at the 50 DMA. Now obviously to understand where ETH is going we need to have some predictions on BTC. BTC is forming a bull flag that could extend the run to around 3.9k-4k. So another 5% upside move or so to the upside. If his happens expect ETH will move bullish another 10%-20% and retest the 50% extension.
-The moving averages suggest we should see more consolidation before such a move due to the flattening nature, however, you can see the 50 DMA pointing slightly up. This means bulls are still in control and reconfirms for many that the accumulation zone is in intact.
-Let's closely monitor the price movement of BTC the next 48-72 hours as I'm expecting a move to the upside to reestablish bullish conviction. If this does not play out everyone should either moves stops to break-even or if that's too close no more than 1-2% loss of capital!
Education:
I've seen many examples on trading view of TA's with literally 50 trend lines , as many moving averages and on top of that 10 trading indicators...THIS NEEDS TO STOP!!!!!!!
-What do you need to trade successfully:
1). Read and study Peter Brandt. He has several books, he's on twitter and he's the master of charts (over 40 years professionally)
2). Learn to recognize classical chart patterns ( wedges , triangles, diamonds, flags, Head and Shoulders , etc etc). In fact Peter doesn't even use indicators. He goes 100% off the patterns in a chart because he says why use an indicator which is just a derivative of price when I can just study the price. I'm not that good so I use indicators.
3.) You only need 2 trading indicators. One that is a leading indicator which can tell you when to buy or sell or do nothing. The second should tell you when the price action is overbought, oversold or spot divergence. For me all I need is Stochastic and RSI . Sometimes I'll throw in MACD to spot divergence patterns more since it's more of a lagging indicator.
4). Form your technical framework for trading on higher time frames like the Daily or Weekly. Use the 2-4hr charts to execute trades.
5.) Use moving averages as further guidance where potential supports and resistances will be.
6.) Get to know your friend Fibonacci.
Keep your TA as clean and simple as possible. That's when you know you've done it right. You don't need to overcompensate with extra indicators or insane amount of trend lines and colors to look smarter.
Let's have a good week and keep on collaborating! Strength in numbers brah!
Bobby
-Don't hate the hair, hate the game.
Everyone who has been trading in this space long enough understands that Bitcoin is the master, however, the alt coins move in greater extremes to the upside and downside. It's really a speculators dream. You first understand Bitcoin you can play the alt coins to your benefit.
I'm repeating this, but not everyone reads all my publications. The falling wedge pattern is a bullish pattern despite it's downward trajectory. Despite the lower highs, the lower lows are lessening and forming a flattening pattern. This signals that selling pressure is getting exhausted and a reversal could be on the table. Therefore this pattern is most reliable at the bottom of a downtrend and you ideally want to see 3 touches on both sides of the falling wedge to confirm support and resistance. The only way to successfully trade a falling wedge is to play it's extremes or a bullish breakout of the pattern.
Where is ETH headed based on what we know in this chart?
Moving averages:
20 EMA (pink)
50 DMA (orange)
-ETH made a very bullish move on Dec 20th moving above the EMA 20 which signaled a huge rally climaxing just above the 50% extension. Most of the bear market rallies between BTC and ETH in 2018 have climaxed at the 61.8% Fib. So in some ways this downside move was a bit expected as the market got overbought.
-ETH then made a bearish move falling back inside the wedge and crossing below the 20 EMA, but finding support again at the 50 DMA. Now obviously to understand where ETH is going we need to have some predictions on BTC. BTC is forming a bull flag that could extend the run to around 3.9k-4k. So another 5% upside move or so to the upside. If his happens expect ETH will move bullish another 10%-20% and retest the 50% extension.
-The moving averages suggest we should see more consolidation before such a move due to the flattening nature, however, you can see the 50 DMA pointing slightly up. This means bulls are still in control and reconfirms for many that the accumulation zone is in intact.
-Let's closely monitor the price movement of BTC the next 48-72 hours as I'm expecting a move to the upside to reestablish bullish conviction. If this does not play out everyone should either moves stops to break-even or if that's too close no more than 1-2% loss of capital!
Education:
I've seen many examples on trading view of TA's with literally 50 trend lines , as many moving averages and on top of that 10 trading indicators...THIS NEEDS TO STOP!!!!!!!
-What do you need to trade successfully:
1). Read and study Peter Brandt. He has several books, he's on twitter and he's the master of charts (over 40 years professionally)
2). Learn to recognize classical chart patterns ( wedges , triangles, diamonds, flags, Head and Shoulders , etc etc). In fact Peter doesn't even use indicators. He goes 100% off the patterns in a chart because he says why use an indicator which is just a derivative of price when I can just study the price. I'm not that good so I use indicators.
3.) You only need 2 trading indicators. One that is a leading indicator which can tell you when to buy or sell or do nothing. The second should tell you when the price action is overbought, oversold or spot divergence. For me all I need is Stochastic and RSI . Sometimes I'll throw in MACD to spot divergence patterns more since it's more of a lagging indicator.
4). Form your technical framework for trading on higher time frames like the Daily or Weekly. Use the 2-4hr charts to execute trades.
5.) Use moving averages as further guidance where potential supports and resistances will be.
6.) Get to know your friend Fibonacci.
Keep your TA as clean and simple as possible. That's when you know you've done it right. You don't need to overcompensate with extra indicators or insane amount of trend lines and colors to look smarter.
Let's have a good week and keep on collaborating! Strength in numbers brah!
Bobby
-Don't hate the hair, hate the game.
Trade active:
Can these guys please stop Fing up on protocal upgrade delays....seriously.
www.ccn.com/ethereum...-postpone-constanti/
www.ccn.com/ethereum...-postpone-constanti/
Trade active:
January 21st should be a decision point for ETH.
