ETHEREUM - Textbook Cup and Handle? Bullish!

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Please excuse the Spillage (and redraw from my Kraken Finding), but how about a Fresh Cup of Bullish Hopium. Is ETHUSD Displaying a Cup and Handle? Previously I have been riding a Bullish Butterfly Pattern rather hard, and in addition - on attempting to relate to the recent minor parabolic moves, this pattern has emerged. Enter Cup and Handle? The Pattern is even more crisply seen on Bitfinex, hence the redraw - higher volume and it seems that other Exchange Traders are eyeballing its movements.

The anticipated ETH Hard Fork has gone live, and the price action hasn't snapped the handle off just yet.

Price action is presently caught under the EMA Ribbon on the 4-Hour Chart, but what's new? Minor uptrend lines are being challenged by the Bears Daily, but Bulls are in the mood for buying dips. Long Positions are still holding ground on Bitfinex, and a lot of TA Folks think "Weak Hands are Being Shaken out".

We have a nice and stubborn Trading Range of $10 here with dump and dip buying on both sides that would keep the requirements of the handle within validation. If this is a Cup and Handle , it'll be set to boil up and over the handle, should it meet the requirements and validate: "The duration for the formation of a handle is usually from 1 week to several weeks. The handle should be considered reliable only when it is formed in the top half of the cup formed..."

Duration of the Cup Formation is 70 days including the uptrend, which meets the requirements as well.

Keep an eye on the pattern, wait for validation, volume , etc.

Good luck, Traders. May you find yourself on the profitable side of it!
Trade active: A strong cluster of EMA supporting and rejecting price action on the Daily. In either direction, a strong move is going to be needed.

EMA12 has low volume price action under it, and any larger volume move, the EMA100 acting tough resistance.

EMA20,50,and 100 - pick your flavor, are acting supporters it seems.

For this pattern to play out, textbook, a strong bounce off the top half of the handle, a move down to point D or lower, and a strong rebound by the Bulls is going to be needed.

We're starting to trade real tight, MACD is sitting like a cat fish at the bottom lurking for a cross, and this weekends volatility could return.

Good luck, Traders!

Comment: Unrealistic Target Range applied. Planning for a failed pattern, but preparing for a successful one.

Trade active: Cup and Handle Still relevant. Ideally, I would not want to see the 50% retracement give way, but the 61.8% retracement would probably be a deal break if there wasnt a strong bounce from there, as the handle would slip too far and invalidate the Bullish Bias.

Comment: Current price movement is currently under EMA 12, 20, 26, and 50 on the Daily.

This pattern, for me, is likely at the edge of invalidating. Should the closest support level give way, I would likely put my attention on a Bullish Butterfly on the Daily Chart, which is still presently a valid pattern, for observation.

Comment: After 7 candles to the downside, The Bullish Harami is a welcoming sight.

Comment: Even if the Cup and Handle doesn't play out to perfection, I think it is worth noting that the previous leg up leaned on the 78.6% Fib Retracement as an area to gain momentum for the next advance. Presently, we have 2 touches on the uptrend line with the potential for a third. We are in a Bear Market, previous price action does not dictate future movement, but as an indicator - it's what we have.

We'll see if the Bulls, in a fresh week of trading, need additional support from the 78.6% levels, or if the 61.80% retracement will act springy enough for a rally.

Comment: BTCUSD Comparison to recent leg up. 61.8% acted strong enough for a rally, while ETHUSD needed 78.6% retracement support area. Will be interesting to watch.

Comment: It's a nice start, but will there be follow through? Presently there is break to the downtrend line and a 4H Closing candle approaching.

Trade active: On the 4H Chart, let us look at the leg down's retracement levels to see where there is retracement resistance.

Price action broke over the 23.6% retracement and gained the 4H Period EMA, 12, 20, 26, 50, and 100. TD Sequential is showing a 5 of 9 on the uptrend progress with the 38.2% retracement just above - the next obstacle (something I do not use very often, but also a nice indicator for confirmation, special thanks to @jdlim for the indicator).

After that, the 50% retracement @ $148 which was previous support now turned resistance.

Gaining the EMAs is a positive sign, and there is a bit of work to do for price action and the Bulls, but for the time being, this is looking short-term Bullish. A break above the 50% retracement will be very convincing with the overall pattern showing some tremendous upside.

Trade active: Another note of caution with this pattern and the overall outlook of price action.

The last leg reversal @ the 38.2% range, price action was rejected and it extended to the downside @ $103 range. For me, a close over the 38.2% and 50% range - as previously noted, is a must for this pattern. Above the 50% retracement is much more convincing of a Bullish Bias and validation of this pattern. We'll see how it plays out.

A look at Heikin Ashi Candles with TD Sequential: Looking like a perfected 9 on the current price action Daily.

At the top near $170 the perfected Sell Indicator was spot on. On the previous leg, which this candle arrangement, a perfected 9 was signaled at the previous leg down.

Comment: Cup Still in Play.

Heavy left brained, like the rest of you.
Great looking chart and analysis. Thanks a lot for sharing.
MrJEB alanmasters
@alanmasters, Thank you, kindly!
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