Hello guys,
I am coming with TA for the current ETH state and where I think we are heading in the short term.
It is written in the chart, but for readability, I will put it here in the right order to read it. Just an opinion, no hard number - everything is visible in the chart.
1 ---> Upper left corner
Basically, there are three types of scenarios:
1) BTC goes down and takes the whole market with it, where the altcoins
are as we are used to bleeding the most (except XXX - I know there are exceptions)
2) BTC goes sideways and the ETH corrects,
but the ETH/BTC valuation will go down more hard.. or the same as in the first one??
3) BTC goes up and ETH also, which would insist that we break the channel and
go for another price discovery mode, which I think is unlikely at the current state.
I am personally biased with scenarios 1-2 where I put more value to the first one.
2 ---> Down right corner
Another point to mention is that we should also consider ETH / BTC ratio, where ETH is currently out-performing
BTC since the start of a bull run by 2.82x.
If we assume a situation, where bitcoin is one cycle ahead before ETH,
we should consider the lower volatility. Considering that BTC is "possibly" at the current peak of a bull move.
I am not insisting this is an end of a bull-run definitely not, but I think we are heading into a moment of a few months accumulation phase.
I am also not insisting it is going to happen tomorrow.
My personal opinion is few more weeks, but let's see how the new weekly candle opens on Monday.
3 ---> Purple box
Another unlike scenario (IMO),
would be that we break the channel upwards for a new price discovery
in the following "weeks",
however, this does not correspond with healthy corrections as we know them.
This move is way straight up.
4 ---> Green box
We could assume that the price
could be hanging at the upper channel line,
in that case, it is a bit different since the price went "straight" up.
Before the start of the channel,
the movement was more continuous and "healthy".
So more likely we will go down a bit.
To summarize this up:
In the case the ETH or Market turns red we could potentially see a 30-40% wash off, but I think it is a good entry for a short with a stop loss at 4500, maybe put a bit more tight, depending on your style :)
The risk/reward is in our favor in this case.
I could have also included the market cap and the Bitcoin dominance, but I do not find it that necessary in the matter of short-term moves.
I would be very glad If some of you guys, would give me any relative feedback and if that is something that makes sense to you.
Thanks!
I am coming with TA for the current ETH state and where I think we are heading in the short term.
It is written in the chart, but for readability, I will put it here in the right order to read it. Just an opinion, no hard number - everything is visible in the chart.
1 ---> Upper left corner
Basically, there are three types of scenarios:
1) BTC goes down and takes the whole market with it, where the altcoins
are as we are used to bleeding the most (except XXX - I know there are exceptions)
2) BTC goes sideways and the ETH corrects,
but the ETH/BTC valuation will go down more hard.. or the same as in the first one??
3) BTC goes up and ETH also, which would insist that we break the channel and
go for another price discovery mode, which I think is unlikely at the current state.
I am personally biased with scenarios 1-2 where I put more value to the first one.
2 ---> Down right corner
Another point to mention is that we should also consider ETH / BTC ratio, where ETH is currently out-performing
BTC since the start of a bull run by 2.82x.
If we assume a situation, where bitcoin is one cycle ahead before ETH,
we should consider the lower volatility. Considering that BTC is "possibly" at the current peak of a bull move.
I am not insisting this is an end of a bull-run definitely not, but I think we are heading into a moment of a few months accumulation phase.
I am also not insisting it is going to happen tomorrow.
My personal opinion is few more weeks, but let's see how the new weekly candle opens on Monday.
3 ---> Purple box
Another unlike scenario (IMO),
would be that we break the channel upwards for a new price discovery
in the following "weeks",
however, this does not correspond with healthy corrections as we know them.
This move is way straight up.
4 ---> Green box
We could assume that the price
could be hanging at the upper channel line,
in that case, it is a bit different since the price went "straight" up.
Before the start of the channel,
the movement was more continuous and "healthy".
So more likely we will go down a bit.
To summarize this up:
In the case the ETH or Market turns red we could potentially see a 30-40% wash off, but I think it is a good entry for a short with a stop loss at 4500, maybe put a bit more tight, depending on your style :)
The risk/reward is in our favor in this case.
I could have also included the market cap and the Bitcoin dominance, but I do not find it that necessary in the matter of short-term moves.
I would be very glad If some of you guys, would give me any relative feedback and if that is something that makes sense to you.
Thanks!