I posted bigger picture bullish predictions for ETH end of June and July when it was under 1100 predicting a rally to 1700-1800 - my expectations then was derived from the accumulation structure I observed around the bottom and those were markup targets. At the time my upper resistance was 2333.
Given the information contained in the price action since then I can now give more precise predictions near term:
- Expecting an expanded flat (EF) to form here over the next few weeks that will provide a structure allowing attempted break of my adjusted resistance of 2265 at or around the intersection of the downtrend resistance (light red line) since November
- More upside to 2012-2172 in the coming days before the A wave of the EF begins - the A wave will likely conclude in the upper 1600s
- The B wave would then test the 2265 resistance for the first time and that will be expected to fail resulting in a rapid sell off to upper 1300s-low 1500s (wave C of the EF), which will complete the bullish impulse and subsequent corrective wave off the lows (I didn't draw in the count but we are currently in wave 5 (should conclude around 2012-2172)).
This is just one scenario that is most likely based on my control charts and level mapping.
- alternatively we go ahead and test the 2265 resistance from here and then begin a corrective wave (the levels will change slightly if so but essentially the drop would be from 2265 to 1300-1600 range, and then re-attempt breakout).
- The common expectation I've seen is that this is something along the lines of bear market rally, and thats possible, however, the accumulation would not have been as strong as we've seen. Also, even if it is this latter case the overall market is over-shorted and a squeeze could unfold (or has already started) making my predictions still correct albeit for the wrong reasons.
I haven't missed on ETH recently but we'll see. The black path is my expected projection.
Given the information contained in the price action since then I can now give more precise predictions near term:
- Expecting an expanded flat (EF) to form here over the next few weeks that will provide a structure allowing attempted break of my adjusted resistance of 2265 at or around the intersection of the downtrend resistance (light red line) since November
- More upside to 2012-2172 in the coming days before the A wave of the EF begins - the A wave will likely conclude in the upper 1600s
- The B wave would then test the 2265 resistance for the first time and that will be expected to fail resulting in a rapid sell off to upper 1300s-low 1500s (wave C of the EF), which will complete the bullish impulse and subsequent corrective wave off the lows (I didn't draw in the count but we are currently in wave 5 (should conclude around 2012-2172)).
This is just one scenario that is most likely based on my control charts and level mapping.
- alternatively we go ahead and test the 2265 resistance from here and then begin a corrective wave (the levels will change slightly if so but essentially the drop would be from 2265 to 1300-1600 range, and then re-attempt breakout).
- The common expectation I've seen is that this is something along the lines of bear market rally, and thats possible, however, the accumulation would not have been as strong as we've seen. Also, even if it is this latter case the overall market is over-shorted and a squeeze could unfold (or has already started) making my predictions still correct albeit for the wrong reasons.
I haven't missed on ETH recently but we'll see. The black path is my expected projection.
I am noticing minor distribution over the past day/over night and my initial targets to the downside are as follows:
1772
1648 (very good year)
From there it will have small bounce (wave ii of A of EF) to ~1800 before completing wave A (probably over the weekend) at ~ 1430-1550...
After that look up