David.Moulder
Short

Bearish Cypher - a little "Rough"

FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
A Bearish Cypher on the EURJPY             - while the "C" Leg wicks breach the 1.414Ext - it doesn't close below this level, its a rough trade but one i would still take - maybe with a smaller lot size.
I agree it's a rough Cypher and would be more inclined to play
it as a Shark, especially with the A to B leg above 50%.
And, with the 1.618 of A to B about the .886 of C to X
would use that as pt D @1.39.10/15 and not anticipate an extended shark
at the 1.13 fib ext of A to X
Whew ! Hope that made some sense.
Anyway, welcome to TV. If you're interested, the pattern tracer for Cyphers
does not measure pt D as .786 from C to X it is measuring
only from A to X which means that pt D would show a ratio of .70 or so
to be .786 from C to X. You might want to check it out with the fib tool.
Best of luck and lot of pips in your pocket !!!!!
Reply
David.Moulder dojitrader
Hi dojitrader, thanks for the comment - i do use the fib tools, i don't rely on the tracers all that much - except for pointing out the D legs maybe - your right it could be played as a shark, but it woo would be kind of rough for my liking also - but hey, this is Forex - nothing is ever certain. let it be known though, i didn't take this trade - the conservative side of me won this battle :)
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David.Moulder dojitrader
dammit - too* - and yes to answer the other part of your comment that did make sense, i did have to go and draw it out again though as i had cleared the chart :/ damn you OCD!
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statistically, how often to gartley derived patterns actually pan out? imho, not better than 50-50. that being said, i wouldn't bet against the euro just yet:

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/07/14/jp-morgan-eurusd-interest-rates-eonia-us-yields-ecb-ltro-14-july-2014/ (1 must read between the lines ;) ) and http://snbchf.com/fx-theory/eurusd-1-50/
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isomorph isomorph
damn it! there's a typo (can't we edit our own posts?): i meant: 'how often do' and not 'to'.
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Statistically, proven through years of historical back testing - the Cypher has a probability score of approx 75-80% - depending of course on one's ability to follow their rules, identify the pattern correctly and trade with discipline.. which - not everyone does.
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