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# Bearish Cypher - a little "Rough"

FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
37 6
A Bearish Cypher on the EURJPY             - while the "C" Leg wicks breach the 1.414Ext - it doesn't close below this level, its a rough trade but one i would still take - maybe with a smaller lot size.

## Related Ideas

statistically, how often to gartley derived patterns actually pan out? imho, not better than 50-50. that being said, i wouldn't bet against the euro just yet:

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/07/14/jp-morgan-eurusd-interest-rates-eonia-us-yields-ecb-ltro-14-july-2014/ (1 must read between the lines ;) ) and http://snbchf.com/fx-theory/eurusd-1-50/
isomorph
damn it! there's a typo (can't we edit our own posts?): i meant: 'how often do' and not 'to'.
isomorph
Statistically, proven through years of historical back testing - the Cypher has a probability score of approx 75-80% - depending of course on one's ability to follow their rules, identify the pattern correctly and trade with discipline.. which - not everyone does.
I agree it's a rough Cypher and would be more inclined to play
it as a Shark, especially with the A to B leg above 50%.
And, with the 1.618 of A to B about the .886 of C to X
would use that as pt D @1.39.10/15 and not anticipate an extended shark
at the 1.13 fib ext of A to X
Whew ! Hope that made some sense.
Anyway, welcome to TV. If you're interested, the pattern tracer for Cyphers
does not measure pt D as .786 from C to X it is measuring
only from A to X which means that pt D would show a ratio of .70 or so
to be .786 from C to X. You might want to check it out with the fib tool.
Best of luck and lot of pips in your pocket !!!!!
Hi dojitrader, thanks for the comment - i do use the fib tools, i don't rely on the tracers all that much - except for pointing out the D legs maybe - your right it could be played as a shark, but it woo would be kind of rough for my liking also - but hey, this is Forex - nothing is ever certain. let it be known though, i didn't take this trade - the conservative side of me won this battle :)
dammit - too* - and yes to answer the other part of your comment that did make sense, i did have to go and draw it out again though as i had cleared the chart :/ damn you OCD!
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