David.Moulder
Long

Has just hit buy limits - strong oversold indications

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
Has just hit buy limits - strong oversold indications

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isomorph
2 years ago
considering how low the volatility is, therefore with a 5-day time horizon, nothing is strongly oversold yet:
snapshot
. ie 70 more pips to drop would not be unexpected.
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David.Moulder isomorph
2 years ago
It may very well do that, who knows - i work in probabilities. volatility is low yes, but what pair isn't, ATR's of late are the lowest we have seen in years. Am im sorry to say im not even going to take the time to TRY and read a chart with that much clutter on it :P
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isomorph David.Moulder
2 years ago
fair enough :) but what you consider clutter i consider bare minimum (and habit formation basically trains the eye to see what needs to be seen without being overwhelmed; anyway that's what the hide switch is for ;)).

i find the classic RSI not to be so reliable to identify OB/OS consistently. hence the modified TDI on my chart showing we have not even entered OS yet.
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David.Moulder isomorph
2 years ago
That's fine too :) - each to their own, IMO Indicators are just a reflection of price action being displayed on the chart and as such, Indicators will always "lag" behind price action, price action in itself tells me 90% of what I need to know about what the market intends to do, the RSI is simply a tool I use to estimate extreme OB and OS markets, or over-exhausted moves.
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isomorph David.Moulder
2 years ago
i hear ya. i use studies because they synthesize and extract internal dynamics of PA. i still find it hard to read raw PA, especially when you get a bunch of up/down candles 1 after the other and you can barely see that price is starting to trend down, for ex. or maybe it's just me getting too fixated on each individual candle detail. damn it.
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David.Moulder isomorph
2 years ago
Possibly, theres something to be said for "scrunching up" the chart and checking the big swings.. clears things up alot..
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David.Moulder
2 years ago
snapshot


Targets 1 & 2 smashed!
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isomorph David.Moulder
2 years ago
yes but not because of the gartley or the RSI, but because of better CPI data than expected ;) and now we wait for yellen to run her mouth: if she says something hawkish, USD will go up, and if she says something dovish, USD will drop and GBP will hit 1.72.

what do you think?
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David.Moulder isomorph
2 years ago
Fundamental Analysis is really not part of my trading plan, any news events that impact the market will be reflected in price action - which we have discussed previously :P

On a quick Analysis on the Pound/Dollar this morning, it is butting up against a long-term high resistance level at the moment, it has fallen away and re-tested it several times over the last several days and we have a fair amount of B-Divergence, I personally don't see it breaking through.. I looked back as far as 2012 briefly and we haven't seen this market reach these highs in a long time, but I do believe its running out of steam..
snapshot


In terms of where it may go - well the first place one always looks is the next significant S/R level - so I would expect it to hit 1.70620's in the initial drop - then probably further down steps from there..
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