EURJPY Monthly Chart. Head and Shoulders pattern has formed.
This is a very exciting chart because we have great technical and fundamental confluence.
Firstly, as we know, patterns that occur on the monthly timeframes certainly have more strength than those on the lower timeframes.
This head and shoulders pattern, therefore, could be seen as a massive opportunity to look for trades to the downside. If we take a look at the red box, that is quite a large inefficiency in which we would be looking to capitalise on with short positions. Some may be worried about the spike higher up at the left shoulder. In my opinion, this was a stop raid and a short accumulation period (relatively) for the sharp move downwards from September 1998 til November 2000, due to the amount of time it spent at the 155.00-160.00 level.
Fundamentally, Yen is looking extremely strong, with another recent safe haven bid having been made. I do not believe we have seen the last of the correction in the indices as of yet, which would give further strength to the idea of Yen strengthening. What's more, China's woes have wreaked havoc on the commodity markets, which adds further fuel to Yen's fire. Specifically speaking of EURJPY here, Draghi's press conference last week is still being digested by the market. His cutting of inflation expectations and therefore murmurings of further QE will cause the EUR to weaken over the coming months. In addition, we have seen a change of -13.17% in the yield on the Eurobond year to date. A flattening is occuring once again, following the same pattern that occurred with the Euro weakness throughout 2014. This gives a further piece of fundamental confluence.
Firstly, as we know, patterns that occur on the monthly timeframes certainly have more strength than those on the lower timeframes.
This head and shoulders pattern, therefore, could be seen as a massive opportunity to look for trades to the downside. If we take a look at the red box, that is quite a large inefficiency in which we would be looking to capitalise on with short positions. Some may be worried about the spike higher up at the left shoulder. In my opinion, this was a stop raid and a short accumulation period (relatively) for the sharp move downwards from September 1998 til November 2000, due to the amount of time it spent at the 155.00-160.00 level.
Fundamentally, Yen is looking extremely strong, with another recent safe haven bid having been made. I do not believe we have seen the last of the correction in the indices as of yet, which would give further strength to the idea of Yen strengthening. What's more, China's woes have wreaked havoc on the commodity markets, which adds further fuel to Yen's fire. Specifically speaking of EURJPY here, Draghi's press conference last week is still being digested by the market. His cutting of inflation expectations and therefore murmurings of further QE will cause the EUR to weaken over the coming months. In addition, we have seen a change of -13.17% in the yield on the Eurobond year to date. A flattening is occuring once again, following the same pattern that occurred with the Euro weakness throughout 2014. This gives a further piece of fundamental confluence.