EURNZD - Low might be in - Awsome Long oppotunity with >1:6 R/R!

We are in a larger red ((abc)) correction and currently in wave ((b)) of 2/B.
Price is unfolding as a complex (wxy) correction and we have reasons to believe the low is in.
We should therefore see price go up in impulsive fashion (5 waves up) for red wave ((c)).

Why the low might be in :
* Wave (y) turned around at the 61.8% projection of wave (w) to (x)
* We can count an (abc) move in wave (y) and 5 waves for each of those sub-waves and the Fib proportions are also met.
* We can also count 5 waves to the upside for brown wave i.

Ideally, it's best to wait for a clear upside confirmation, turquoise wave (i) and (ii), but I don't want to give up much of this move and am willing to have a small risk therefore.
Will start with a rank 3 position and scale up when possible.

Trade Setup :

Entry: 2 possibilities - We enter on the brown wave ii, which should find support around 1.6600
- We wait for price to turn higher and make an entry once price goes above brown wave i high.
Stop: - Entry 1: 1.6528
- Entry 2: below brown wave ii.
Targets: 1) 1.7125
2) 1.7310
(those will be updated if necessary).


!!! If price moves lower and takes us out of this trade, does not mean the count gets fully invalidated.
We will have to look to buy again at a lower price.

Comment:

Good Risk Management is the key to success!
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Ranking system for my trades

Rank 0, 1, 2, 3

0 = risk the most, it's when all stars are aligned, the gods love us. (very rare)
2 = our everyday trade
3 = risk the least, it's our least confident trade but could have a nice ROI if goes well.

Do something like this.
0 = 5% to 1 = 2.5%, 2 = 1%, 3 = 0.5% of your equity.
Change the values as you wish but
I do not recommend risking more than 5%!

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Comment:

We are going complex here. We should see one more push lower.
We can identify 2 zones of support. If first support does not hold, move your Stop.
Do also not forget to scale in to your position once price starts rallying our way.

Don't just follow the technical setup but also the data, if RBNZ's stance is dovish and rates do not change, we should see NZD lose strength.

But if for any reason, there is a rate hike, NZD will become VERY strong and beat every other pair. In which case, we stop this trade and reverse it, to short this pair.

Comment:

Technically it was a good setup, it was ok to take this trade, even tho we should have waited for the data to come out first.
The trade still remains vaild as price did not retrace more than 100% of wave (i), but I don't like it where we are right now.
Later today, RBNZ' Governor will give a speech. Depending on it's interpretation we might see some volatility.

Comment:

Stopped out.
As long as we stay above 1.6330 we remain bullish.