List of confluences:
1: Trendline Breakout and close
2: Breakout and close Key Level around 1.6582* on Daily Chart required as confirmation. This will mean change in market structure and new low created.
3: Head and Shoulder Pattern which can be seen on both the Daily Chart and The Four Hour Chart.
Summary: This trade has a potential Risk Reward (RR) of 3.62 to 1. We will only look of entries on the retest of key level 0.7184*.
The trade will be executed either using manual entry or pending order, depending on the location of price after the breakout.
The trade could be a RR +- 6 to 1, but we looking to trade about 60 - 65% of the move as there is a much higher chance of out T.P getting reached with a good RR.
We do not want to stay in trades too long as anything can happen. If we get stopped out, will look to other currency pairs for setups and only look at EURNZD next month.
Comment:
The trade is still valid, price has pulled back quite. We waiting for the current lower high to be broken. If price created a new lower high, this will allow us to get an even better RR. For now we are sitting on our hands and waiting for setup to complete.
Comment:
Looks like price is heading toward the key level. We need to wait for a breakout and close today in order to confirm the creation of a new low and the start of short term bearish market. If that happens we should start looking for entries as soon as tomorrow.
Comment:
Key level shifted from 1.6568* to 1.6615* level. Entries on retest tomorrow if pair closes bearish.
Trade active