I have a really simple strategy that is based on what i trade not how i trade it. I look for assets that have a clear trend and then buy any pullbacks against that trend. This keeps me on the right side of the trade which is the most important thing in trading. I have tried every technical and the truth is they all work when you have chosen the right asset and they all fail when you choose the wrong one. I think that is why traders lose money, they keep trying to use a technical in the wrong place rather than the wrong technical.
EURTRY is in a clear uptrend and has been for some time, I have added an elliot wave count but that is not the main reason for the trade. EW just helps to give a structure to what is happening. Price has made a new high and put in a higher low since its pullback following the Bank of Turkey rate hikes last month. The pressure on the emerging market economies is likely to get worse as the Fed continues its rate hikes, I think the TRY and the MXN are the currencies likely to suffer most from the FED. I am already long USDTRY and USDMXN but am looking to add the EURTRY if it makes a pullback large enough to trade
EURTRY is in a clear uptrend and has been for some time, I have added an elliot wave count but that is not the main reason for the trade. EW just helps to give a structure to what is happening. Price has made a new high and put in a higher low since its pullback following the Bank of Turkey rate hikes last month. The pressure on the emerging market economies is likely to get worse as the Fed continues its rate hikes, I think the TRY and the MXN are the currencies likely to suffer most from the FED. I am already long USDTRY and USDMXN but am looking to add the EURTRY if it makes a pullback large enough to trade
Comment:
The EURTRY made a new high overnight without the pullback be large enough to buy, the new high confirms the ongoing trend higher and I will be looking to buy the next pullback if a suitable one materialises. This happens quite a lot in my strategy and as a result, I do not take many trades but they do work out profitable. USDMXN and USDTRY mentioned in the post have now been closed each delivering a 5% return having risked 2% of equity.
Trade active:
I have bought this pair. The ecb announcement caused a significant pullback that unfolded in a tradable structure I bought at 5.423, this was not the price i had in mind but the pair turned just before my entry so i took the trade manually.
Trade active:
Price has reacted nicely from the green box on the chart and I have now moved stop loss to break even. I will leave the trade open targetting a risk reward of 2:1 or better.
Trade active:
The trade is moving well despite the significant fall in the EURO against all of the other currencies. The trend never lets you down. I have decided to set the final target at 5.69, this is where wave iii (circle) = 1.62 x wave i (circle). Although I am not a big believer in Fib numbers this is a relationship that often works out, it gives a risk:reward of 5.5:1 which is really good especially as the stop has been moved to the entry point.
Trade closed manually:
The euro does not seem to be getting any traction and the price action has become very messy. I have decided to close the trade at 5.4980 for a 4% return. The original target was 6% but i dont think it will get there