Too early to think EURUSD did a Bullish Reversal
After a series of successful trades and set-ups in EURUSD, last week's unprecedented EURUSD rise triggered the SLs of my EURUSD shorts.
However, I feel this is too early to think that EURUSD has reversed.
Just 3 weeks ago, EURUSD broke through the 1.0880 support and went as low as 1.0760 area. At that time, I saw various analysts and experts say how Euro could fall even more to 1.05 and 1.01. But, I was actually looking for buys since 1.09
So, what has changed in just 3 weeks that has resulted in a massive strength in fiber?
Firstly, the sell-off in equity markets driven by Coronavirus fears has lead to a decline in dollar strength.
Many analysts say that EUR is a safe-haven currency and thus it's value rises during times of financial distress. However, that is far away from the Truth.
EUR is conventionally viewed as a RISKY asset due to the fact that it is the common currency of a large number of countries with different economic policies and needs. Besides the occasional political instability, BREXIT, and an ongoing difference between EU Leadership and various member states( eg. Italy) makes EUR a fairly risky asset.
So, capital doesn't flow into EUR due to it's "non-existent" safe-haven appeal. Rather, it's the negative interest rate which makes the EUR very cheap to borrow. So, in times of crisis, institutions borrow the EUR as a funding currency to acquire other risk-assets. So, the demand for Euro rises in times like this.
That being said, a lot depends on how the equities perform this month. I, personally believe that this Coronavirus-fueled sell-off is overdone. However, the way the stocks were pumped last year always made me feel that a big correction is due. So, this is the correction we are seeing now.
I would like to stay away from EURUSD for the time being. However, if I see signs of EURUSD rally fizzling out and the stocks bouncing back, I would definitely try a couple of sells with small lot sizes between 1.1320-1.1385 with SL above 1.1450. TPs would be placed at 1.11, 1.09 and 1.0660
However, I feel this is too early to think that EURUSD has reversed.
Just 3 weeks ago, EURUSD broke through the 1.0880 support and went as low as 1.0760 area. At that time, I saw various analysts and experts say how Euro could fall even more to 1.05 and 1.01. But, I was actually looking for buys since 1.09
So, what has changed in just 3 weeks that has resulted in a massive strength in fiber?
Firstly, the sell-off in equity markets driven by Coronavirus fears has lead to a decline in dollar strength.
Many analysts say that EUR is a safe-haven currency and thus it's value rises during times of financial distress. However, that is far away from the Truth.
EUR is conventionally viewed as a RISKY asset due to the fact that it is the common currency of a large number of countries with different economic policies and needs. Besides the occasional political instability, BREXIT, and an ongoing difference between EU Leadership and various member states( eg. Italy) makes EUR a fairly risky asset.
So, capital doesn't flow into EUR due to it's "non-existent" safe-haven appeal. Rather, it's the negative interest rate which makes the EUR very cheap to borrow. So, in times of crisis, institutions borrow the EUR as a funding currency to acquire other risk-assets. So, the demand for Euro rises in times like this.
That being said, a lot depends on how the equities perform this month. I, personally believe that this Coronavirus-fueled sell-off is overdone. However, the way the stocks were pumped last year always made me feel that a big correction is due. So, this is the correction we are seeing now.
I would like to stay away from EURUSD for the time being. However, if I see signs of EURUSD rally fizzling out and the stocks bouncing back, I would definitely try a couple of sells with small lot sizes between 1.1320-1.1385 with SL above 1.1450. TPs would be placed at 1.11, 1.09 and 1.0660
