EUR/USD Daily Outlook: All Eyes on the FOMC Meeting Minutes
Daily EURUSD Outlook
FUNDAMENTALS:
The weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI was one of the reasons the market entered a risk-off mode and pushed the USD higher yesterday. EUR remains at the mercy of USD drivers given the lack of domestic drivers in the eurozone.
Today's main event is the FOMC meeting minutes. Markets lack a reason to turn bearish on USD just now, with the FOMC report (today at 18:00 UTC) likely to lead to further bullishness in the currency. However, one concern could be that the Fed could push a rate hike despite an uneven recovery in the US economy. Upcoming US market reports will therefore be especially important for the currency.
Latest Headlines:
USD News:
US Dollar Index clings to gains in the mid-92.00s, looks to FOMC
US dollar at the mercy of the market's take on FOMC minutes
US 10-year Treasury yields refresh 19-week low
US urges China, private sector to boost participation in G20 debt response
Biden closely watching the OPEC+ negotiations
EUR News:
Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (1.1%) in May
Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) below forecasts (20.4%) in May: Actual (13.3%)
EUR/USD to plummet towards yearly lows at 1.1704 on a break below 1.18 – OCBC
France May trade balance -€6.80 billion vs -€6.24 billion prior
France Imports, EUR: €46.162B (May) vs previous €46.85B
Upcoming Market Reports:
Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days (all times are UTC timezone):
Wednesday at 14:00: USD JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 9.30M, Previous: 9.29M)
Wednesday at 18:00: USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (Expected: , Previous: )
Thursday at 12:30: USD Unemployment Claims (Expected: 345K, Previous: 364K)
Thursday at 15:00: USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: , Previous: -6.7M)
Friday at 10:00: EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Expected: , Previous: )
SENTIMENT:
Currency Strength Index:
Both EUR and USD are mostly moving sideways against other major currencies as markets are focused on today's FOMC minutes.
Risk Sentiment:
After yesterday's sharp sell-off in risk currencies, risk sentiment could remain fragile today on the outcome of the OPEC meeting, China's crack-down on tech companies, and the FOMC minutes. Any shift towards risk-off could push the EURUSD pair lower towards 1.17.
TECHNICALS
EURUSD trades in a narrow range this morning after a strong sell-off yesterday. The 1.18 round-number support (double bottom) seems to hold at the moment, but the absence of a decisive move above the 1.1830 suggests sellers remain in control.
Very indecisive candlesticks on the 1-hour chart could lead to a surge in volatility once we get a fundamental driver. The price-action remains bearish, and the current consolidation could rather point at further weakness in the pair.
Levels to follow (Liquidity):
Major resistance: 1.1900
Minor resistance: 1.1830
Major support: 1.1800
== SUMMARY ==
A push below the 1.18 mark will likely attract further sellers and pave the road towards 1.17. In the meantime, there is nothing to do in the pair.
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FUNDAMENTALS:
The weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI was one of the reasons the market entered a risk-off mode and pushed the USD higher yesterday. EUR remains at the mercy of USD drivers given the lack of domestic drivers in the eurozone.
Today's main event is the FOMC meeting minutes. Markets lack a reason to turn bearish on USD just now, with the FOMC report (today at 18:00 UTC) likely to lead to further bullishness in the currency. However, one concern could be that the Fed could push a rate hike despite an uneven recovery in the US economy. Upcoming US market reports will therefore be especially important for the currency.
Latest Headlines:
USD News:
US Dollar Index clings to gains in the mid-92.00s, looks to FOMC
US dollar at the mercy of the market's take on FOMC minutes
US 10-year Treasury yields refresh 19-week low
US urges China, private sector to boost participation in G20 debt response
Biden closely watching the OPEC+ negotiations
EUR News:
Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (1.1%) in May
Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) below forecasts (20.4%) in May: Actual (13.3%)
EUR/USD to plummet towards yearly lows at 1.1704 on a break below 1.18 – OCBC
France May trade balance -€6.80 billion vs -€6.24 billion prior
France Imports, EUR: €46.162B (May) vs previous €46.85B
Upcoming Market Reports:
Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days (all times are UTC timezone):
Wednesday at 14:00: USD JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 9.30M, Previous: 9.29M)
Wednesday at 18:00: USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (Expected: , Previous: )
Thursday at 12:30: USD Unemployment Claims (Expected: 345K, Previous: 364K)
Thursday at 15:00: USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: , Previous: -6.7M)
Friday at 10:00: EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Expected: , Previous: )
SENTIMENT:
Currency Strength Index:
Both EUR and USD are mostly moving sideways against other major currencies as markets are focused on today's FOMC minutes.
Risk Sentiment:
After yesterday's sharp sell-off in risk currencies, risk sentiment could remain fragile today on the outcome of the OPEC meeting, China's crack-down on tech companies, and the FOMC minutes. Any shift towards risk-off could push the EURUSD pair lower towards 1.17.
TECHNICALS
EURUSD trades in a narrow range this morning after a strong sell-off yesterday. The 1.18 round-number support (double bottom) seems to hold at the moment, but the absence of a decisive move above the 1.1830 suggests sellers remain in control.
Very indecisive candlesticks on the 1-hour chart could lead to a surge in volatility once we get a fundamental driver. The price-action remains bearish, and the current consolidation could rather point at further weakness in the pair.
Levels to follow (Liquidity):
Major resistance: 1.1900
Minor resistance: 1.1830
Major support: 1.1800
== SUMMARY ==
A push below the 1.18 mark will likely attract further sellers and pave the road towards 1.17. In the meantime, there is nothing to do in the pair.
Please hit the 'LIKE' button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
