CBMotivation
Short

EUR / USD - Down to parity - LONG TERM SHORT

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Did you get on in that last move down, I hope so. I'll be posting my Euro / USD trades here as the pair trend down towards parity 1.0. This will not be a quick journey, it'll take years to get to parity, and the Euro will fight back, but there is now no reason unless we get some major strength in Europe and or major weakness in the US for the next 6 months, sell the two legged pullbacks, allow the bulls to exhaust (join them short term) and then sell down as we receive a price action signal.

If the Euro breaks out of this decade long channel, then the pattern is broekn, but I don't see that happening without China becoming the global super power over night.
Comment: Look at the DXY, once it breaks through 95, pulls back twice and it becomes support, the USD will trend with strength against the Euro, the far weaker currency.

Comment: These are the sell zones, short-term first and the second is after a two-legged pullback, I don't expect the US market to do anything but sell the Euro today
Comment:
Comment: Really important to understand where we are with this pair right now, 1.6 is the center line of a major area of confluence that sits between 1.7 and 1.52.

Previously 1.56 acted as support and the Euro bounced up to 1.24, the highest it's been since 2013, but that was in an uptend and, very likely the last time it will go there, if and that's a big if, something happens politically with the US to weaken the dollar, the highest I'm expecting this pair is 1.22, within the descending decade-long channel, but when looking at the DXY/EXY, there is only one place this is going and that is down.



So if you're not already in this trade or want to add to your positions (did you take some profit at 1.52), we're looking for pullbacks into these zones, C is a last resort and I wouldn't personally want to sell that low, it's high risk.

D is a great position if we break through the support line and pullback.

Comment: Fundamentals: Greece are negotiating their bailout starting this week, they want to be done by next Friday, the 21st. The EU will have to make it look good no matter the outcome, but I for one will not be buying the Euro no matter how strong it is until after this decision on the bailout is finished, there are too many reasons why it could drop like a brick during the process and remember, we're long-term bearish, leave the big moves to the hedge funds, take short term buy trades only.
Comment: Again I'm still in this trade since the big move down on the 14th. We've had a pullback to 1.172 a restest of the lows @1.154 and we're weaving sideways, I'm expecting a further move down. But I wouldn't add more to this trade, stops at breakeven.

Comment: The DXY is pulling back right now and the EU is talking about the potential to increase rates, this will trigger the buyers on various EU pairs, to look for a potential long position, but how far will they go? If the geopolitical trade war continuous, this is how far, right shoulder?

Comment: Waiting for a pullback into the red zone to buy up towards a profit zone within 1.19 - 1.2 then we'll be close to the edge of the long-term descending channel to sell it back down.

Trade active: Short term long to the top of the channel, before taking the long-term short.

Comment: The Euro broke lower overnight after positive noises came out of the fed and US futures edged up. The trend line has also broken, it has done that before and bounced back, but we'll know after the 10am Euro reports if we're going lower this morning.

Trade closed: stop reached
Trade active: Flipped the trade, we're going lower after breaking the trend line and the stronger $

Comment: Look at the candle on the daily chart, if we close this evening with a daily pin. I will continue with a bullish move towards 1.8

Comment: I've been in Euro / USD since July 18th and we've done nothing but move sideways ever since. I've taken a few range bound trades of the highs and lows. And I'm now sat on Yesterdays trade @1.17275 and my trade at the same price on the 17th July.

Looking for a longer term move to carry on rotating down the long-term channel. There is no reason why the Euro will go up long term, while interest rates and the continual debt-buying program continues, this was confirmed today, sit tight and be patient.

can you explain more about the last comment about greece bailout and how it can effect the market ?
Reply
@qr8v, I did mention it, it can affect the market... don't try to guess which way it will go based on the fact there is a discussion, the market will show you
Reply
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