CBMotivation
Short

Eur / USD - Range Bound - Ready to break out short?

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Volume is dramatically reduced across the markets while the summer holidays are in play, I shall be going on another myself quite soon, but I shall still be watching the markets. So where are we with this major pair?

The Long-term downtrend remains intact with nearby resistance zone (SELL) between 1.174 - 1.186, wait for a sell signal before entering on any time frame above 1h, ensuring that that signal matches 4h and the daily if possible, enter on a lower time frame 15m to ensure you get a nice position.

Comment: Now the long-term picture to support the trade, I look back 6 months to 2 years to get the strongest levels and confluence zones, but first some fundamentals.

While Eurozone inflation rose by 0.1%, the overall economy was still down 0.4% on last year. We've got four positive sessions on this pair so I'm hoping we get up to the highs of the Sell zone, historically, the pair has dropped hard from there, but overall the USA is looking stronger, only the trade war and FANG stocks is slowing things down, short-term, remember the ECB has no intention of raising interest rates, their creating hundreds of billions in debt to support the zone, while the US is increasing interest rates, albeit modestly, so both are going down, just the Euro is faster.

Long term, the pair spent 2017 rotating up to the edge of the descending channel (see idea below for the 10 year view), and we've already pulled back to the 50% fib of that move, now it's time to find how high we're going, either into the sell zone, or back to the channel edge around 1.195 before coming back down to the 1.14, I don't think we'll get higher than the sell zone, we'll get a signal soon enough.

Comment: The 1h picture is a simple one, 4 rejections of the bottom of the zone so far.

Comment: It's actually 6 rejections if we zoom out more for the whole month when that level was last support. Definitely an interesting trade for the week ahead.

Comment: First rejection, we need to see more than this...

Comment: Looking like we might break the resistance line

Comment: There we go, second rejection, this time on 4h...we now need to see a push hard to the resistance line with strength and fail.

Comment: Patience....

Trade active
Comment: Progressing nicely as forecast...

Comment: We're now at the first part of the bottom of the range, but going on all the information available, I'm not done yet. Take some profit if needed.

Comment: Look at the weekly chart without any annotation on it and I can clearly see a long term pattern supporting the big bear, which is the decade long term view (see links below), it doesn't mean it will go straight there, markets never move in one direction. But the weakness in the Euro is now being exposed for what it really is, a debt laden monster supported by an ideology and poor economics.

Comment: I'm still looking for 1.15- 1.14 target

Comment: We have non-farm payroll today and some reasonable metrics that will impact the markets across the board, nothing surprising from tthe EU PMIs, although Italy has some improvements, but it still sent the Euro lower fast. So an interesting first Friday of the month, currently I have an incredible portfolio of very profitable trades right now, check out my ideas, June and July was my biggest periods ever, but least amount of trades.

Looking for a profit target of 1.15 on this pair, be very aware of your entries this morning, in early, out early today, unless you have some excellent positions that can handle being held over the weekend, I certainly do, I've held some trades for over a month.

What are your thoughts and ideas?



US$ v Euro
Trade closed manually: NFP missed estimates and China have retaliated with their tariffs, too much may go wrong this afternoon, so I'm taking my profits for the weekend. 125 pips
Trade closed: target reached
Comment: We're at the lows and in the target area of this pair, so wait for a strong pullback and rejection around 1.66 before getting back in

Comment: We've touched the support line on this pair now, I didn't think we'd get this low after the NFP on Friday. But if you're still in great work, you may get 1.15 before the bounce

Great chart and comments, thank you for posting
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I'm in this one as well, thanks for the insight on the fundamentals behind the idea and long term view.
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CBMotivation wilsongalucho
@wilsongalucho, always a pleasure, I'm also using fundamentals along with technicals, lines on a chart are not enough to enter a trade
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waiting....
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